20251117申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Weekend night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output has high growth. Grid investment has positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a gap, supporting copper prices in the long run. Suggest paying attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is generally high. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, it may fluctuate within a range. Suggest paying attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (CNY/ton) | Domestic Basis (CNY/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 86,820 | 25 | 10,846 | 3.88 | 136,175 | - 75 | | Aluminum | 21,750 | - 20 | 2,859 | - 28.05 | 553,200 | 9,125 | | Zinc | 22,370 | 15 | 3,015 | 175.85 | 37,800 | 1,925 | | Nickel | 117,240 | - 2,330 | 14,880 | - 194.13 | 251,970 | - 144 | | Lead | 17,445 | - 190 | 2,066 | - 23.09 | 223,975 | - 1,250 | | Tin | 292,000 | 5,330 | 36,860 | - 87.50 | 3,055 | 0 | [2]