2025年11月17日：期货市场交易指引-20251117

Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Stock Index: Mid-to-long term bullish, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: Range-bound [1][5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell call options [1][8] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: Short-term range trading [1][11] - Aluminum: Suggest buying on dips [1][12] - Nickel: Suggest waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies [1][17] - Tin: Range trading [1][17] - Gold: Range trading [1][19] - Silver: Range trading [1][18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: Range-bound with a weak bias, 01 contract pay attention to the 4700 resistance level [21][23] - Caustic Soda: Range-bound with a weak bias, 01 contract pay attention to the 2400 resistance level [24][25] - Soda Ash: Bearish strategy for the 01 contract [1][35] - Styrene: Range-bound with a weak bias, pay attention to the 6500 resistance level [26][27] - Rubber: Range-bound, pay attention to the 15000 support level [27][28] - Urea: Range-bound [30][31] - Methanol: Range-bound [31][32] - Polyolefins: Weak range-bound, L2601 pay attention to the 6800 support level, PP2601 pay attention to the 6500 support level [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Range-bound [36] - PTA: Low-level range-bound, pay attention to the 4400 - 4700 range [36] - Apple: Range-bound with a strong bias [38] - Red Dates: Range-bound with a weak bias [38] Agricultural Livestock - Hogs: Rebound under pressure [1][40] - Eggs: Limited upside [1][43] - Corn: Range-bound at the bottom [46][47] - Soybean Meal: Range-bound [48] - Oils and Fats: Limited rebound [1][48] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across different industries. Market conditions are influenced by a variety of factors including macroeconomic policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events. Each product's investment strategy is based on its specific market situation and outlook [1][5][7]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Index: Mid-to-long term bullish, but may range-bound in the short term due to rapid market hot - spot rotation and unclear main lines [5] - Treasury Bonds: Range-bound. The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a moderately loose tone, and the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited. The market is in a range - bound and wait - and - see state [5][6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal and Rebar: Range trading. Coking coal market has weak demand and price cuts, while rebar is undervalued but has limited upside due to weakening demand and potential production cuts [7][8] - Glass: Sell call options. End - of - year demand may weaken further, with high inventory and delivery pressure. Technical indicators show a bearish trend [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: High - level range - bound. The US government's situation and economic data add uncertainty, while the long - term demand outlook is positive but short - term consumption is suppressed [11] - Aluminum: Suggest waiting and seeing. Supply and demand fundamentals are complex, and there is a risk of over - trading the market's expectations [12][13] - Nickel: Suggest waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies. The new RKAB policy brings supply uncertainty, and the medium - to - long - term supply is in surplus [16][17] - Tin: Range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and downstream consumption is weak, but prices are supported [17] - Gold and Silver: Range trading. Uncertainty about the Fed's December interest - rate decision and concerns about the US economy support prices in the medium term but are in a short - term adjustment [18][19] Energy Chemicals - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias. High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth [23] - Caustic Soda: Range - bound with a weak bias. High inventory in the alumina industry and potential negative feedback in the industrial chain [25] - Soda Ash: Bearish for the 01 contract. Supply is in surplus, and although cost increases, supply pressure remains high [35] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias. Weak chemical fundamentals and uncertain cost factors [27] - Rubber: Range - bound. High raw material prices, seasonal inventory accumulation, and weak terminal demand [28] - Urea: Range - bound. Supply increases, demand is driven by agriculture and industry, and inventory changes need attention [30][31] - Methanol: Range - bound. Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory accumulates [31][32] - Polyolefins: Weak range - bound. Supply pressure increases, demand has no obvious increase, and cost pressure exists [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Range - bound. Global cotton supply and demand are both increasing, and the end - of - season inventory is decreasing [36] - PTA: Low - level range - bound. Oil prices are weak, supply and demand are in a state of inventory accumulation, and downstream procurement is weak [36] - Apple: Range - bound with a strong bias. Production and quality decline, which may support prices [38] - Red Dates: Range - bound with a weak bias. Acquisition prices are slightly adjusted, and market sentiment is cautious [38] Agricultural Livestock - Hogs: Rebound under pressure. Short - term price fluctuations are limited, and medium - to - long - term supply remains high before the first half of next year [40][42] - Eggs: Limited upside. Supply is sufficient in the short term, and long - term supply pressure reduction requires time [43][45] - Corn: Range - bound at the bottom. Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term cost support exists, but demand growth is limited [46][47] - Soybean Meal: Range - bound. US soybean supply and demand are expected to tighten, but Brazilian production may limit the upside [48] - Oils and Fats: Limited rebound. Short - term reports have a neutral impact, and long - term potential factors need attention [54]