Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatile [4] - Silver: High-level volatile [4] - Logs: Bottom volatile [6] - Pulp: Bottom rebound [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6][7] - Soybean No.2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No.1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and slightly stronger [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wide-range volatile [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The supply and demand surplus pattern of iron ore is difficult to reverse, and steel mill profits are squeezed again. Coal and coke's upward driving force has weakened, but there is still support in the short term. Steel supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are mainly in volatile adjustment. Glass demand is weak, and the industry chain surplus contradiction needs to be resolved by reducing production. The market is in short-term consolidation, and the medium-term trend is still upward. Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and its price is expected to be in high-level volatile [2][4]. - Log supply pressure increases, and prices are expected to be in bottom volatile. Pulp cost support weakens, and demand performance is poor, but prices are expected to rebound from the bottom. Offset paper supply pressure still exists, and prices are expected to be volatile. Oil supply is abundant, and demand is weak, and prices are expected to continue range-bound. Soybean meal and soybean No.2 are affected by import costs and domestic fundamentals, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. Live pig supply is expected to increase, but demand support is limited, and prices may decline [6][7]. - Rubber supply is affected by weather, and demand is improving. Inventory is in a downward trend, and prices are expected to be in wide-range volatile. PX and PTA prices are affected by raw material prices, and MEG supply is in a high position, and demand is worrying. PR and PF prices are affected by multiple factors, and the market is expected to be in volatile adjustment [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: China's 47-port arrival volume decreased by 16.44% to 2.7693 billion tons. Iron water increased slightly, but steel demand is weak. Port inventory continued to increase, and the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. Short-term negative feedback probability is small, and prices are mainly volatile [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The heating season supply guarantee meeting was held, and the market is worried about subsequent production resumption. Coking plant cost pressure is high, and the fourth round of coke price increase is still in the game. Steel mill profitability has declined rapidly, and blast furnace maintenance and production reduction have increased. There is still support for coal and coke in the short term [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and Sino-US preliminary meetings were held. The macro利好 has landed, and prices are returning to fundamentals. Rebar static valuation is low, and steel demand is weak. Steel price stability depends on whether production reduction can be strictly implemented in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of anti-"involution" policies [2]. - Glass: Spot prices are relatively weak, and some manufacturers have started to cut prices. The news of coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe has fermented. Real estate completion has continued to decline during the peak season, dragging down demand prospects. Enterprise inventory has continued to increase, and the industry chain surplus contradiction needs to be resolved by reducing production [2]. Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index recorded -1.57%, the SSE 50 index recorded -1.15%, the CSI 500 index recorded -1.63%, and the CSI 1000 index recorded -1.16%. The forestry and gas sectors showed capital inflows, while the semiconductor and Internet sectors showed capital outflows. The market is in short-term consolidation, and the medium-term trend is still upward. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2]. - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.11 billion yuan. Treasury bond spot rates are in consolidation, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold: In the context of high interest rates and globalization reconstruction, gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Central bank gold purchases are the key, and its de-fiat currency attribute is prominent. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk aversion demand still exists. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly. The logic driving the current round of gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that gold will be in high-level volatile [4]. Light Industry - Logs: The average daily port shipment volume of logs last week was 663,000 cubic meters, an increase of 35,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The average daily national outbound volume was stable above 600,000 cubic meters, but demand growth is difficult to maintain. New Zealand's log shipments to China in October increased by 2% from the previous month. The port inventory pressure is high, and inventory accumulation is expected to continue. Spot market prices are running steadily, and the ex-warehouse price is expected to decline. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the delivery situation [6]. - Pulp: The previous trading day, spot market prices rose and fell. The latest ex-warehouse price of softwood pulp decreased by another 20 US dollars to 680 US dollars per ton, and the latest ex-warehouse price of hardwood pulp increased by 20 US dollars to 540 US dollars per ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, and paper mills have high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand performance is poor, and currently paper mills purchase raw materials on a rigid basis, which is negative for pulp prices. Spot market price increases may drive futures prices, and it is expected that pulp prices will rebound from the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: The previous trading day, spot market prices were running steadily. Offset paper supply pressure still exists, and production has recovered compared with the previous week. Publishing tenders have been launched one after another, but market expectations are cautious. At the same time, paper price profits are at a low level, and the enthusiasm for high-price inventory is low. It is expected that prices will be mainly volatile [6]. Oil and Fat - Soybean oil: Malaysian palm oil production is higher than market expectations, and exports are strong, alleviating inventory accumulation concerns. It is expected that inventory will remain at a historical high in the next two months. The focus later will turn to the production reduction rate in November and export resilience. Recently, international oil prices have fluctuated sharply, and the attractiveness of biodiesel raw materials is limited. A large amount of soybeans have continued to arrive in China, and the oil mill operating rate has declined. Although the oil inventory has declined, the supply is abundant, while the demand is weak. At the same time, oil mills are more willing to support soybean meal prices to repair pressing profits, but there is support from raw material soybean costs. It is expected that the overall oil and fat will continue to be range-bound. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean producing area and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Palm oil: Same as soybean oil [6]. - Rapeseed oil: Same as soybean oil [6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: The USDA report shows that US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks have all been revised down compared with September, but the global ending stocks have been revised up to 18.27 million tons, higher than market expectations. The global supply is slightly loose. Although the Sino-US trade agreement is helpful to promote US exports to China, US soybean prices do not have an export advantage. After the USDA report expectations are fulfilled, US soybean futures prices lack further driving force. The Brazilian soybean planting progress has improved, and the weather in the central and southern regions will be favorable for soybean crops. Argentina's soybean sowing is expected to accelerate due to favorable weather. Domestic oil mill operating rates have declined, and a large amount of imported soybeans have arrived. Soybean meal supply is abundant, demand is weak, and purchases are mainly on a rigid basis. Overall transactions are light. Soybean meal is affected by both import cost support and domestic fundamental pressure. It is expected that soybean meal will be volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean producing area and the actual progress of Sino-US trade [6][7]. - Soybean No.2: After the USDA expectations are fulfilled, US soybean futures prices lack further driving force. China has lowered tariffs on some US agricultural products and resumed purchasing a small amount of US soybeans, but traders are still waiting for larger-scale soybean purchases. The weather in the South American soybean producing area is generally favorable. Domestic near-month shipping imports of soybeans have accelerated, and port soybean inventory has continued to rise. Supply is very abundant. It is expected that soybean No.2 will be volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean producing area, Sino-US trade progress, and other uncertainties [7]. - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs across the country has increased slightly. The average transaction weight of live pigs has reached 124.65 kilograms, an increase of 0.11% from the previous week. Most regions have shown an upward trend in live pig transaction weight, except for a slight decline in the Northeast. Some large-scale farms concentrated on slaughtering in the first half of last month, and the weight of pigs available for slaughter at the end of the month was relatively light. At the beginning of this month, they generally adopted a strategy of reducing volume and increasing weight. The demand for large-weight白条 pigs has increased in some regions, and the price difference between fat and thin pigs has gradually narrowed. Slaughtering enterprises have correspondingly increased their purchasing efforts for medium and large-sized pigs, driving a slight increase in the average transaction weight. As the slaughtering rhythm of the breeding end gradually returns to normal, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase, but the demand support in the downstream market is limited, and there may be passive backlogging. It is expected that the average transaction weight of live pigs across the country may continue to maintain a slight upward trend next week. The average settlement price of live pigs by key slaughtering enterprises across the country was 12.67 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.86% from the previous period. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has declined this week. The operating rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises has shown a slow recovery trend at a low level. The average operating rate of slaughtering enterprises across the country this week was 37.06%, a slight decrease of 1.02 percentage points from the previous week. The slaughtering volume of the breeding end was relatively limited from the end of last month to the beginning of this month, and the downstream stocking enthusiasm was insufficient. Slaughtering enterprises reported that it was difficult to sell白条, and only the slaughtering volume in some regions increased. Currently, the cost is high, and orders are limited. The slaughtering end has no sign of actively increasing the slaughtering volume, and the support for the market is limited. The average weekly price of live pigs may decline in the next week [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The weather in Yunnan's rubber-producing area has limited impact, and raw material supply has remained stable. The purchase price has been slightly adjusted downward, and the rubber tapping profit is in the negative range. Hainan has been affected by continuous rain and typhoon weather, which has had a greater impact on rubber tapping operations. The overall glue production is lower than the same period last year and lower than expected. The processing profit is in the red, leading to a reduction in raw material prices. The production cost of local processing plants has decreased, and the profit inversion has improved. In Thailand, there has been a lot of rain, and typhoons have affected the southern producing area. The cup lump price has continued to rise, with a weekly average of 54.41 Thai baht per kilogram. The weather in the Vietnamese producing area has improved, and the previous supply pressure has been alleviated. The overall inventory is still at a low level. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 71.07%, and that of full-steel tire sample enterprises is 63.96%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has increased this week. Some enterprises had short-term maintenance plans before, which significantly dragged down the enterprise capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume operation, the device capacity will be gradually released. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales in September were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. Natural rubber inventory has continued to show a downward trend. Currently, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China is 1.08 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.7%. Bonded warehouses have accumulated inventory, and general trade warehouses have continued to reduce inventory. The inventory reduction volume is greater than the inventory increase volume. The main producing areas have been affected by rain and typhoons, which have affected rubber tapping, but the expectation of increased supply in the future suppresses raw material prices. In the short term, rubber prices will follow the macro trend, and natural rubber prices may show a wide-range volatile operation [9]. - PX: The intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased, and the relationship between the US and Venezuela also has risks, leading to rising oil prices. North American gasoline inventory is at a low level, and gasoline profitability is good. The market is speculating on the aromatics blending oil logic, which drives up PX prices regardless of oil price fluctuations [9]. - PTA: The medium- and long-term oil price expectation is not good, and the cost-side support is not good. PTA supply has decreased marginally, but there are new device test runs. The downstream polyester factory load has remained stable at a high level. Overall, PTA supply and demand have improved. Especially, the announcement of maintenance plans for multiple devices recently and the sharp increase in raw material prices have led to short-term PTA prices mainly following the raw material price fluctuations [9]. - MEG: It is expected that port inventory will continue to rise last week, while domestic production load has slightly declined. The overall supply is still at a high level. The polyester load on the demand side has temporarily stabilized with a decline, but at the end of the peak season, there are concerns about the future. The future supply and demand are expected to be in surplus. Although the long-term inventory accumulation pressure suppresses prices, short-term factors such as device accidents affect the inventory accumulation expectation, and the futures market has warmed up [9]. - PR: Crude oil prices have risen, and the cost still has strong support. However, there has been no substantial improvement in supply and demand, and the upward momentum of polyester bottle chips is insufficient. It is expected to be in weak volatile consolidation [9]. - PF: The demand side has shown average performance, but the PTA supply has decreased. Coupled with the large increase in oil prices over the weekend, it may continue to boost the cost-side trend. It is expected that under the game of multiple factors, the polyester staple fiber market may be in a warming consolidation this week [9].
新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-17）-20251117
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-11-17 03:42