Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range due to cost support and pressured crushing margins [5]. - Palm oil is expected to trade in a range, with a shift to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [5][9]. - Sugar prices are expected to decline after a rebound, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term [16]. - Egg prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [20]. - Hog prices are expected to have a bearish outlook before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to use reverse spreads first and then wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean and Soybean Meal - Market Information: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. The USDA monthly report lowered the new - crop soybean production in the US and globally. US soybean exports were also lowered. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable last week, and the cost of imported soybeans rose. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly over the weekend. MYSTEEL statistics showed average domestic soybean meal sales last week, good pick - up, and a slight decrease in feed enterprise inventory days. MYSTEEL expects the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills to increase this week [2]. - Supply and Demand: In the next two weeks, rainfall in Brazilian soybean - growing areas is expected to be normal, and sowing is expected to proceed normally. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [3]. - Strategy: Import costs may have found a bottom, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but the de - stocking season is approaching, providing some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5]. Vegetable Oils - Market Information: ITS and AMSPEC data showed a 9.5% - 12.28% decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed a 6.8% increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 5 days of November and a 2.16% decrease from November 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month. A consultant expects Malaysian palm oil futures prices to rebound to 4,300 - 4,400 ringgit per metric ton in Q1 next year. Domestic vegetable oils traded in a range last Friday, supported by the rebound in crude oil and the expected seasonal de - stocking [7]. - Strategy: High production in Malaysia and Indonesia has pressured palm oil prices, but improving exports provide some support. Palm oil is expected to trade in a range, with a shift to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9]. Sugar - Market Information: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell on Friday. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of October increased by 16.4% year - on - year. India has allowed 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the new season. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased [11]. - Strategy: Stricter controls on syrup and premix imports have boosted Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. It is recommended to wait for the rebound to fade and then look for short - selling opportunities [12]. Cotton - Market Information: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade in a range on Friday. Domestic cotton production is expected to be high this year, and downstream demand is weak. Spinning mill operating rates are lower than in previous years, and commercial inventories are higher [14][15]. - Strategy: Cotton prices are expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term due to weak downstream demand and high domestic production [16]. Eggs - Market Information: Domestic egg prices were stable over the weekend. The laying hen inventory is high, but there is no pressure to sell eggs after the temperature drop, and downstream demand is gradually recovering [18]. - Strategy: Egg prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term [20]. Hogs - Market Information: Domestic hog prices mostly fell over the weekend, with some areas stable. Supply in the northern market increased, and downstream demand was limited. Southern leading enterprises tried to support prices, and the market was in a stalemate [22]. - Strategy: Hog prices are expected to have a bearish outlook before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to use reverse spreads first and then wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [23]. 4. Key Charts - Soybean and Soybean Meal: Charts include major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, port soybean inventory, feed enterprise inventory days, etc. [25][32] - Vegetable Oils: Charts include domestic three - major vegetable oil inventories, Malaysian palm oil inventory, etc. [47] - Sugar: Charts include national monthly sugar sales volume, cumulative sugar production, etc. [51] - Cotton: Charts include global and US cotton production and inventory - to - consumption ratio, Chinese cotton production, etc. [62][63] - Eggs: Charts include laying hen inventory, egg chick replenishment volume, etc. [73] - Hogs: Charts include hog slaughter weight, daily slaughter volume, etc. [85]
五矿期货农产品早报-20251117
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-17 03:46