玻璃：产销出现回落继续弱势看待

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures showed a weak performance, and the main contract's open interest reached a new high. With insufficient expectations for macro - policies, the market was more in line with the fundamentals, showing a downward trend. The end - of - year demand is likely to weaken further, and there is delivery pressure in the near - term contracts. Technically, the moving averages are in a weak arrangement, and the short - side power is dominant and strengthening [3] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to expect a weak and volatile trend. The main logic is that the glass futures were weak last week, the supply side remained stable with no changes in production lines and constant daily melting volume, and the demand side weakened with manufacturers' production - sales ratio declining. The downstream was pessimistic, and processing factory orders deteriorated. For soda ash, although the cost increased due to rising coal prices, it was still considered from a short - selling perspective. The outlook is that the end - of - year demand may weaken, and there is delivery pressure in the near - term contracts. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration and continue to hold short positions on the 01 futures contract, with attention on the range of 990 - 1000 [3] 02 - 03 Market Review - Spot and Futures Prices: As of November 14, the 5mm float glass market price was 1110 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1140 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1230 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. The glass 01 contract closed at 1032 yuan/ton last Friday, down 59 yuan for the week. The soda ash - glass price difference was 194 yuan/ton (+75), the glass 01 contract basis was 68 yuan/ton (+19), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 128 yuan/ton (+6) [10][11][13] 04 Profit - Production Process Profits: For the natural gas production process, the cost was 1574 yuan/ton (0), and the gross profit was - 344 yuan/ton (-10); for the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1210 yuan/ton (-2), and the gross profit was - 100 yuan/ton (-18); for the petroleum coke production process, the cost was 1092 yuan/ton (0), and the gross profit was 48 yuan/ton (0) [16] 05 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass was 157,505 tons per day (unchanged), and there were currently 222 production lines in operation. There have been multiple production line changes including cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [18][20] 06 Inventory - As of November 14, the total inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,324.7 million weight boxes. The inventory in North China was 1112.2 million weight boxes (+30.7), in Central China was 710 million weight boxes (+8.3), in East China was 1333.3 million weight boxes (-11.4), in South China was 932.8 million weight boxes (-15.8), in Southwest China was 1301.5 million weight boxes (+7.6), the inventory in Shahe factories was 390 million weight boxes (-26), and in Hubei factories was 507 million weight boxes (-4) [22] 07 Deep - processing - On November 13, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 88% (-26%). On November 14, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 46.5% (+1.7%). At the beginning of November, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.8 days (+0.4) [26] 08 - 09 Demand - Automobile Industry: In October, China's automobile production was 3.359 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 83,000 and a year - on - year increase of 363,000; sales were 3.322 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 96,000 and a year - on - year increase of 269,000. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.282 million, with a penetration rate of 57.2% [37] - Real Estate Industry: In September, China's real estate completion area was 34.3534 million square meters (0% year - on - year), new construction area was 55.9831 million square meters (-15% year - on - year), construction area was 54.7081 million square meters (-16% year - on - year), and commercial housing sales area was 85.3087 million square meters (-12% year - on - year). From November 15 to November 14, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.61 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 31%. In October, real estate development investment was 585.729 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [44] 10 - 13 Cost - side Soda Ash - Spot and Futures Prices: As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1325 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1250 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1300 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1450 yuan/ton (0) in South China. The soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton (+16) last Friday, and the basis of soda ash Huazhong 09 was 74 yuan/ton (-16) [47][51] - Profit and Cost: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1392 yuan/ton (+33), with a gross profit of - 24 yuan/ton (+20); the cost of the co - production process was 1871 yuan/ton (+80), with a gross profit of - 182 yuan/ton (-8). The market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2423 yuan/ton (+173), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (0) [53][54][55] - Inventory: As of November 14, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 170.73 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.69 million tons), including 90.71 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 0.75 million tons) and 80.02 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 million tons). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts were 5454 (a month - on - month decrease of 2860) [62][67] - Apparent Consumption and Production - sales Ratio: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 40.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 million tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 34.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.97 million tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 100.93%, a week - on - week increase of 2.57% [71][77]