黑色：原料交替下行钢材相对抗跌

Report Overview - Report Title: Black: Raw Materials Alternately Decline, Steel Relatively Resilient [1] - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Reporting Company: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The raw materials decline alternately while steel shows relative resilience [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Black Sector Performance - Last week, the black sector showed a divergent trend. Steel and iron ore prices remained stable, while coking coal and coke prices dropped significantly. The strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil > coke > coking coal [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Comparison - The futures market showed a differentiated trend, with non-ferrous metals performing strongly [6]. 3.3 Spot Prices - Rebar and iron ore prices increased, while scrap steel prices decreased slightly [8]. 3.4 Profit and Valuation - The profitability of steel mills declined, and the valuation of rebar futures was relatively low [10]. 3.5 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel production and demand decreased, and inventory was slowly depleted [12]. 3.6 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at ports were high, leading to continuous increases in port inventory. Although pig iron production rebounded last week, it is expected to decline again in the future, and the supply-demand pattern of iron ore will gradually become looser [3][21]. 3.7 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production increased slightly last week, and inventory accumulated. The profitability of coking plants was poor, and coke production dropped to a low level, with coke inventory being depleted again [3]. 3.8 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production continued to decline, and inventory was depleted again [26]. 3.9 Variety Spreads - The mill's paper profit rebounded from the bottom, and the rebar-coke price ratio widened [28]. 3.10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple cities in Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy pollution weather. China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves changed in October. The vice premier will visit Guinea and Sierra Leone and attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project. The US suspended the 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry for one year. Xinjiang steel mills' winter maintenance and production cuts are progressing, with an estimated reduction of about 2 million tons of construction steel output, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total output in 2025. Mysteel predicts that the total output of the Simandou project in 2026 will reach 20 million tons. Most provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have suspended automobile replacement subsidies or scrapping and renewal subsidies. The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026 [33].