国贸期货塑料数据周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market is expected to be volatile as there is no obvious driving force. The supply is neutral, demand is mixed, inventory is bearish, basis is neutral, profit and valuation are bearish, and macro - policy is also bearish [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is expected to be volatile with no obvious driving force. The supply is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is bearish, basis is neutral, profit is bullish, valuation is bearish, and macro - policy is bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - Supply: This week, China's polyethylene production was 67.37 tons, up 1.98% from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 83.14%, up 0.55 percentage points. Some plants were under maintenance, but restarted during the week, leading to a rise in capacity utilization [2]. - Demand: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64%. The overall start - up rate of agricultural film increased by 2.75%, and the start - up rate of PE packaging film increased by 0.52%. In September, China's polyethylene imports were 102.22 tons, down 10.07% year - on - year but up 7.58% month - on - month [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.92 tons, up 7.96% from the previous period. The social sample warehouse inventory was 50.01 tons, down 1.86% from the previous period and 4.14% lower year - on - year. The import cargo warehouse inventory decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The main reasons were the end of bearish sentiment fermentation, producers' price - holding sales, and new plant production increases [2]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around 379, with the futures price at a discount [2]. - Profit: Coal and ethane production costs increased, while oil, ethylene, and methanol production costs decreased. The import profit of LLDPE increased, while that of HDPE decreased, and LDPE increased [2]. - Valuation: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - Macro - policy: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [2]. PP Analysis - Supply: This week, China's polypropylene production was 82.22 tons, up 3.23% from last week and 23.45% from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 79.63%, up 1.85%, and Sinopec's capacity utilization rate was 77.47%, up 1.70% [3]. - Demand: The average downstream product start - up rate of polyethylene decreased by 0.4%. The start - up rates of some products such as PE packaging film, PE hollow, PE injection, and PE drawing decreased [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 62 tons, up 3.35% from the previous period. The port sample inventory increased by 3.56%, and the trader sample inventory decreased by 4.95%. The reasons included the restart of maintenance plants, limited demand boost, and high shipping costs [3]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around - 44, with the futures price close to the spot price [3]. - Profit: The profits of methanol - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while those of oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based PP production declined [3]. - Valuation: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - Macro - policy: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [3]. Main Weekly Data Changes - Prices: PP futures price increased by 0.15%, PE futures price increased by 0.75%, PP spot price decreased by 2.72%, and LLDPE spot price decreased by 1.97% [5]. - Production: PP production decreased by 0.55%, PE production increased by 2.67%, and HDPE production increased by 3.56% [5]. - Start - up Rates: PP start - up rate decreased by 2.07%, PE start - up rate increased by 2.13%, and the start - up rates of some downstream products such as agricultural film and PP pipes changed slightly [5]. - Inventory: PP factory inventory decreased by 2.31%, PE social inventory decreased by 1.17%, and HDPE social inventory decreased by 1.37% [5]. - Cost and Profit: PP weighted profit decreased by 8.81%, and PE weighted profit increased by 25.56% [5].