合成橡胶投资周报：顺丁装置开工修复，主流供价逐步抬升-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of supply - demand game, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate slightly stronger next week. The mainstream transactions will be concentrated on low - priced private resources. Attention should be paid to the price guidance of butadiene at the cost end. [2] - The trading strategy suggests no unilateral trading and recommends paying attention to the arbitrage of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec Chemical Sales BR9000 was 10,300 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was between 10,300 - 10,400 yuan/ton. [5] - This cycle, the butadiene end of raw materials stopped falling and rebounded. The cost support gradually strengthened, boosting the trading center of the butadiene rubber market to move up. The domestic butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization rate recovered. The price of private resources was still significantly lower than that of Sinopec and PetroChina resources, but the negotiation center gradually increased to around 10,000 yuan, and the transaction follow - up was less than last week. [5] 3.2 Price Analysis - China Butadiene Rubber (BR9000): On November 14, 2025, the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina in different regions increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with November 13, with a daily increase rate of about 1.94%. The market prices in different regions showed different changes, with some rising and some falling slightly. [6] - China Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain: The price of butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber showed different degrees of change on November 14 compared with the previous period. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli butadiene increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase rate of 1.51%. [7] 3.3 Device Maintenance - Butadiene Devices: Many domestic butadiene production enterprises had device maintenance plans in 2025, with the maintenance capacity ranging from 30,000 tons to 250,000 tons, and the maintenance time varying. [9] - High - cis Butadiene Rubber Devices: Some high - cis butadiene rubber devices were in normal operation, while others were under maintenance or had future maintenance plans. For example, Maoming Petrochemical planned to stop for maintenance for about 50 days at the end of November. [9] 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 113,600 tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.99%), and the capacity utilization rate was 71%. The high - cis butadiene rubber production was 28,100 tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.92%), and the capacity utilization rate was 69.92%. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market was supported by the seller's price, but in the next cycle, the new production capacity in South China might release output, and the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes would put pressure on the market. [2] - Demand: In the semi - steel tire market, the sales of all - season tires were dull, and the demand for snow tires was expected to continue to release. In the all - steel tire market, the overall demand continued to weaken in the off - season in the north, and the market mainly focused on digesting inventory in the short term. [2] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - Butadiene Inventory: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%. Most butadiene devices were operating stably, but some suppliers reduced production to control prices, affecting the accumulation of enterprise inventory. The port inventory decreased due to the arrival of imported ships but the non - statistics of some unloading ships. [2] - High - cis Butadiene Rubber Inventory: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 30,820 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.22%. Private resources had price advantages, attracting middlemen to purchase, but the sales performance weakened, and the inventory of production and trade enterprises increased. [2] 3.6 Other Analyses - Basis: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 345 yuan/ton, in East China was - 145 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 45 yuan/ton. [2] - Spread/Price Ratio: The RU - BR spread was 4,770 yuan/ton (- 0.73%); the NR - BR spread was 1,820 yuan/ton (- 1.36%); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.35%. [2] - Profit: The production gross profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,724 yuan/ton; the production gross profit of C4 extraction was 26.97 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber was 790 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was 8.14%. [2] - Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors: On November 10, the People's Bank of China carried out 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 41.6 billion yuan. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 66.5%. There were signs of escalation in the geopolitical situation between the United States and Venezuela, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict affected energy facilities. [2]