新能源周报：反内卷进度或延迟，锂盐需求旺盛-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Views - The anti - involution progress in the new energy industry may be delayed, and the demand for lithium salts is strong [1] - Industrial silicon supply and demand both decline during the dry season, with slight inventory reduction, and the silicon price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9400 in the short term [5] - Polysilicon production and demand will both decline in November. The capacity acquisition plan may be delayed, and the price may range from 4.8 - 5.8 in the short term [6] - For lithium carbonate, supply recovery is limited, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [85] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon (SI) - Supply: National weekly production is 9.04 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week decrease. In October, the output was 45.22 tons, a 7.46% month - on - month increase and a 3.75% year - on - year decrease; November's planned output is 38.95 tons, a 13.88% month - on - month decrease and a 3.84% year - on - year decrease [5] - Demand: Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease; organic silicon DMC weekly production is 4.87 tons, a 1.67% week - on - week increase [5] - Inventory: Explicit inventory is 67.87 tons, a 1.96% week - on - week decrease; industry inventory is 45.20 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease [5] - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 9240 yuan, a 0.05% week - on - week decrease; the average profit per ton is - 56 yuan, an 11 - yuan per - ton week - on - week decrease [5] - Investment View: The price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9400 in the short term [5] Polysilicon (PS) - Supply: National weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease. In October, the output was 13.4 tons, a 3.08% month - on - month increase and a 1.90% year - on - year increase; November's planned output is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% month - on - month decrease and a 7.62% year - on - year increase [6] - Demand: Silicon wafer weekly production is 12.98GW, a 1.96% week - on - week decrease; single - GW profit is - 4262 yuan, a 1000 - yuan week - on - week decrease [6] - Inventory: Factory inventory is 27.86 tons, a 0.61% week - on - week increase; registered warehouse receipts are 24360 tons, a 17.56% week - on - week decrease [6] - Cost and Profit: The national average cost per ton is 41633 yuan, a 0.07% week - on - week increase; the average profit per ton is 8617 yuan, a 30 - yuan per - ton week - on - week decrease [6] - News: The Chinese government has rejected the first proposal to set up an industry integration fund to acquire and shut down inefficient polysilicon production capacity [6] - Investment View: The price may range from 4.8 - 5.8 in the short term, maintaining the view of long - term fundamental improvement [6] Lithium Carbonate (LC) - Supply: National weekly production is 2.15 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase. In October, the output was 9.23 tons, a 5.73% month - on - month increase and a 55.00% year - on - year increase; November's planned output is about 9.21 tons, a 0.20% month - on - month decrease and a 43.56% year - on - year increase [85] - Import: In September, lithium carbonate imports were 1.96 tons, a 10.30% month - on - month decrease and a 20.49% year - on - year increase; lithium concentrate imports were 52.05 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase and a 38.01% year - on - year increase [85] - Demand: For lithium iron phosphate materials, weekly production is 9.99 tons, a 3.15% week - on - week increase; for ternary materials, weekly production is 1.98 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase. In October, new energy vehicle production was 177.20 million, a 9.59% month - on - month increase and a 21.13% year - on - year increase; sales were 171.50 million, a 6.92% month - on - month increase and a 19.92% year - on - year increase [85] - Inventory: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 12.05 tons, a 2.81% week - on - week decrease; lithium salt factory inventory is 2.83 tons, a 7.96% week - on - week decrease; downstream inventory is 9.22 tons, a 1.11% week - on - week decrease [85] - Investment View: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the impact of hedging pressure [85]