需求淡季主导，价格弱势承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to the weak supply - demand structure of asphalt itself, with abundant refinery supply and insufficient downstream demand support, along with the multi - empty situation in the crude oil market [62]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - 1.1 Asphalt Futures Main Contract Trend: From November 10 to 14 (daytime closing), the main contract of asphalt futures, BU2601, fluctuated, with an interval decline of 0.36% and an interval amplitude of 2.57% [8]. - 1.2 Shandong Partial Refineries 70A Ex - factory Price: No specific price data was provided in the text. - 1.3 Shandong Heavy - traffic Asphalt Basis: No specific basis data was provided in the text. 3.2 Asphalt Fundamentals - 2.1 Asphalt Production Comprehensive Profit: The current theoretical profit of asphalt production in Shandong local refineries is - 373.85 yuan/ton (processing diluted asphalt with receivables deduction), in Hebei local refineries is - 315.02 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit is 454.05 yuan/ton [19][20]. - 2.2 Spread between BU Main Contract Closing Price and SC*6.6 Main Contract: On November 14, the spread was - 18.16 yuan/ton, up 10.12 yuan/ton compared to November 7 [23]. - 2.3 Spread between BU Main Contract Closing Price and WTI Closing Price: On November 13, the spread was - 22.10 yuan/ton, down 20.81 yuan/ton compared to November 6 [26]. - 2.4 China Heavy - traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: This week, the operating rate was 29%, down 0.7% month - on - month and 2% year - on - year [29]. - 2.5 China Asphalt Weekly Output: The weekly output was 53.2 tons, down 3.38% month - on - month and 5.51% year - on - year [32]. - 2.6 Shandong Heavy - traffic Asphalt Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate: The weekly operating rate in Shandong was 35.4%, up 6.8% month - on - month and down 0.1% year - on - year [35]. - 2.7 Shandong Asphalt Weekly Output: The weekly output in Shandong was 18.3 tons, up 20.39% month - on - month and down 2.14% year - on - year [38]. - 2.8 Asphalt - related Demand Situation: The waterproofing membrane operating rate was 33%, down 1% month - on - month and up 2.5% year - on - year; the road modified asphalt operating rate was 34%, flat month - on - month and up 7% year - on - year [42]. - 2.9 Asphalt Inventory Situation: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 116.7 tons, down 7.23% month - on - month; the weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 68.8 tons, up 2.84% month - on - month [44]. - 2.10 Shandong Asphalt Inventory Situation: The in - plant inventory of 54 Shandong asphalt sample enterprises was 25.6 tons, up 1.99% month - on - month and down 8.90% year - on - year; the social inventory of 70 Shandong asphalt sample enterprises was 29.8 tons, down 8.87% month - on - month and up 18.25% year - on - year [47]. - 2.11 and 2.12 Domestic Weather Forecast for the Next Three Days: There will be snow or sleet in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, Tibet, Northwest China, Shaanxi, and Sichuan in the next three days, and moderate to heavy rain in some areas of Yunnan and Guangxi [52]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Supply: As of November 16, the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate was 29%, down 0.7% month - on - month and 2% year - on - year; the operating rate in Shandong was 35.4%, up 6.8% month - on - month and down 0.1% year - on - year. The market supply is sufficient and the supply support for asphalt prices is limited [61]. - Demand: The waterproofing membrane operating rate was 33%, down 1% month - on - month and up 2.5% year - on - year; the road modified asphalt operating rate was 34%, flat month - on - month and up 7% year - on - year. The demand in the north has entered the off - season, and the demand in the south is relatively stable but with limited actual growth. The demand will continue to decline [61]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of 104 asphalt sample enterprises was 116.7 tons, down 7.23% month - on - month; the weekly in - plant inventory of 54 asphalt sample enterprises was 68.8 tons, up 2.84% month - on - month. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs further observation [61]. - Cost: OPEC and its allies' production increase suppresses oil prices, while the escalation of South American geopolitical risks may cause a short - term rebound. The international oil price fluctuates, and the cost guidance is insufficient [62]. - Technical: The main contract of asphalt futures, BU2601, continues to operate weakly and fluctuately. The price is below the key resistance level, and the moving average system shows a short - position arrangement, indicating weak bullish momentum [62]. - Short - term View: The asphalt futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to the multi - empty situation in the crude oil market and the weak supply - demand structure of asphalt itself [62].