Guoxin Securities·2025-11-17 05:27Group 1: Power Industry - The unified electricity market is accelerating construction, promoting high-quality development of renewable energy. The basic rules of the unified electricity market have been established, with a focus on market-driven pricing for renewable energy [1][24][29] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the wind power sector's revenue decreased by 2.80% year-on-year, while the solar power sector's revenue dropped by 14.01%, indicating pressure on the performance of the renewable energy sector due to consumption and pricing issues [30][31] - The total installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 582 GW and 1127 GW respectively by September 2025, accounting for 46% of the total installed capacity, with a significant contribution to non-fossil energy consumption [36][40] Group 2: Thermal Power - The transition of thermal power to a regulatory power source is accelerating, with coal prices expected to support long-term contract prices, stabilizing profitability for coal-fired power plants [2] - The capacity price for coal-fired power is anticipated to increase further in 2026, promoting stable profitability for coal power [2][10] Group 3: Hydropower - Hydropower is experiencing improved cost-effectiveness due to abundant cash flow and stable performance, with high dividends becoming more attractive in a declining interest rate environment [3] - The core growth points for hydropower include increased installed capacity, rising electricity prices, and reduced financial costs and depreciation [3] Group 4: Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is facing pressure from declining market prices, but there is a rebound in electricity prices in Guangdong, and new nuclear power developments are gaining momentum [3][10] - The approval of new nuclear units is becoming more regular, with 10 units approved in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Group 5: Natural Gas - Domestic natural gas supply is expected to remain relatively loose, with a decline in apparent consumption by 0.2% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - The global natural gas market is entering a supply expansion phase, which may lead to a downward trend in overseas gas prices [4] Group 6: Green Methanol - The promotion of green electricity consumption and the replacement of shipping fuels are expected to open up growth opportunities for green methanol [9] - As of August 2025, there are 173 signed/registered green methanol projects in China, with a total capacity of 53.46 million tons per year, indicating rapid growth in the sector [9][10] Group 7: Environmental Protection - The water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow, suggesting investment opportunities in the environmental protection sector [10] - The domestic market for scientific instruments exceeds $9 billion, with substantial potential for domestic substitution, particularly benefiting companies in environmental monitoring instruments [10]