对二甲苯：中期偏强，正套，PTA：成本支撑偏强，MEG：供应压力边际缓解，但反弹高度或有限

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Bullish in the medium term, long PX short pure benzene/MEG/PTA, positive spread arbitrage [1][4] - PTA: Strong cost support, but limited upside potential [1][5] - MEG: Supply pressure eases marginally, but rebound height may be limited, short allocation [1][6] Core Views - PX's cost is supported by blending demand, with a strong unilateral trend. However, cost transmission may face challenges as downstream demand weakens marginally [4]. - PTA is supported by cost, but its upside is limited due to weakening domestic orders in the weaving industry and expected inventory accumulation in the future [5]. - MEG has sufficient domestic supply and large import volumes, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The medium - term trend is weak [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Futures Prices: On November 16, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6806, 4700, 3922, 6238, and 459.5 respectively. Their daily changes were -30, 0, 30, 14, and 6.6, with daily change rates of -0.44%, 0.00%, 0.77%, 0.22%, and 1.46% respectively [2]. - Spot Prices: On November 16, 2025, the spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, MOPJ naphtha, and Dated Brent were $831.67/ton, 4637 yuan/ton, 3982 yuan/ton, $577.38/ton, and $63.69/barrel respectively. Their daily changes were $6, 72 yuan, 39 yuan, $8.25, and $1.49 respectively [2]. - Spot Processing Fees: On November 16, 2025, the PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 256.67, 147.41, 193.78, 45.72, and - 4.34 respectively. Their daily changes were 15.34, -30.81, -12.91, -28.8, and 0 respectively [2]. - Crude Oil Prices: On November 14, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 was $60.09/barrel, up $1.40 or 2.39% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 was $64.39/barrel, up $1.38 or 2.19% from the previous trading day [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4] Market Dynamics - Ukraine's drone attack on an oil depot in Russia's energy center raised supply concerns, causing international oil prices to continue rising. WTI exceeded $60 per barrel again [2] Views and Suggestions - PX: Blending demand supports cost strength, with a strong unilateral trend. Consider long PX short pure benzene/MEG/PTA and positive spread arbitrage. However, beware of cost transmission challenges as downstream demand weakens [4]. - PTA: Cost - supported, but limited upside. Maintain a 1 - 5 reverse spread arbitrage operation. Expect inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival [5]. - MEG: Short allocation. The medium - term trend is weak. Unilateral trading should focus on shorting on rallies. The 1 - month spread should maintain a reverse spread arbitrage operation [6].