国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251117

Report Date - November 17, 2025 [1][4][8][13][18][21] Investment Ratings for Different Commodities - Iron Ore: Oscillating and fluctuating [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation with narrowing decline in apparent demand data [2][9] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Wide - range oscillation with narrowing decline in apparent demand data [2][9] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Coke: Following the downward adjustment [2][18] - Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation is declining [2][19] - Logs: Oscillating and fluctuating [2][21] Core Views - Each commodity in the black series has its own market trend characteristics, mainly affected by factors such as fundamentals, macro - economic data, and industry news [2][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Futures closed at 772.5 yuan/ton with no change; some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Super Special (56.5%) decreased by 2 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - Macro and Industry News: In October, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.17%. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate was 6.1% [6] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: For RB2601, yesterday's trading volume was 769,087 lots, and the position decreased by 20,210 lots. Some spot prices changed slightly, and basis and spread values also changed [9] - Macro and Industry News: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on November 13, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 8.54 tons, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.5 tons. In terms of inventory, rebar decreased by 16.37 tons, and hot - rolled coil increased by 0.07 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 2.15 tons, and hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.71 tons. In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased by 86 tons month - on - month, etc. [10][11] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: The closing prices of some futures contracts decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and related raw materials changed to some extent, and basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values also changed [13] - Macro and Industry News: Jupiter and NMT announced the shipment prices of manganese ore to China in December 2025. There were also price and procurement information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions. From January to October 2025, the total national output of silicomanganese was 903.96 tons, with Inner Mongolia accounting for 48.5% [13][14][16] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [17] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Some spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and basis and spread values also changed [19] - Macro and Industry News: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 to 2026 [20] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [20] Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of some futures contracts changed. Spot prices of different types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable, with only slight changes in a few cases [22] - Macro and Industry News: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of American logs from November 10, 2025 [24] - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [24]