海外宏观周报：美联储官员“放鹰”-20251117

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, resulting in an estimated loss of $1.5 trillion, with the overall impact to be assessed over weeks or months[4] - The IMF predicts that the U.S. GDP growth for Q4 will be below the previous forecast of 1.9% due to the shutdown[4] - U.S. October PPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while core PPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations[4][5] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Fed officials are divided on interest rate decisions, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while others prefer to maintain current rates[4] - The probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in December decreased from 66.9% to 44.4%[5] - The weighted average expected policy rate for the end of 2026 increased from 2.90% to 2.96%[5] Group 3: Global Market Trends - U.S. stocks saw modest gains, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones up by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.5%[11] - European stocks rose, with the STOXX 600 index increasing by 1.8% driven by healthcare valuations[11] - The dollar index weakened by 0.26%, while the euro and pound strengthened against the dollar[20] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively, closing at $64.4 and $60.1 per barrel[18] - Gold prices increased by 1.9%, reaching $4,071.1 per ounce, while silver surged by 6.8% to $52.0 per ounce[18]