天然橡胶周报：成本及加工利润亏损支撑价格，但供应旺季及宏观不确定抑制上行，整体延续震荡-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost and processing profit losses support the price, but the peak supply season and macro uncertainties suppress the upward movement, with the overall situation continuing to fluctuate [1]. - Yunnan is approaching the end of the tapping season, and raw material prices have stopped falling, although profits remain low, providing some support for the far - month RU contracts. Thai cup rubber prices have risen due to factory purchases and weather conditions, but the peak season still exerts pressure on the upside. Domestic downstream demand is stable, but inventory accumulation has started in November due to increased imports, causing the spot market to weaken slightly. Overall, there are no obvious supply - demand contradictions, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to raw material output, inventory accumulation speed, and macro - policies in November [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Global Production: In September 2025, the global natural rubber production showed a slight increase overall. Thailand produced 451,500 tons, Indonesia 195,000 tons, Vietnam 151,800 tons, China 122,300 tons, and Malaysia 33,000 tons. China had a significant increase in production, while Vietnam had a decline [5]. - Main - producing Countries' Export Volume: From January to August 2025, the export volume of main - producing countries increased significantly, mainly due to China's increased import enthusiasm. In September, the import volume of natural rubber in China still exceeded expectations, with the main increase coming from mixed rubber [5][6]. - Domestic Production and Import: The production of domestic whole - milk rubber decreased year - on - year in the new season, and it is expected that this year's output will fall short of expectations. In September, the total import volume of natural rubber was 595,900 tons, with significant increases in latex, smoked sheets, and other types [6]. - Inventory: The overall inventory has started to accumulate. The inventory of light - colored rubber has not increased, but the digestion of old whole - milk rubber has slowed down after the release of reserve rubber into the market. The inventory of dark - colored rubber has increased significantly, and its sustainability should be monitored [6]. - Downstream Industry: The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires are expected to remain stable. The production volume of tires decreased seasonally in October due to holidays. Automobile sales and the logistics index are expected to remain stable or increase slightly, while tire exports decreased slightly seasonally [7]. - Price and Profit: The prices of raw materials such as Yunnan and Hainan glue showed slight fluctuations. The processing profits of Yunnan and Hainan remained low, and the profits of Thai latex were flat or weak [7]. 3.2 Balance Sheet Analysis - Domestic Natural Rubber Total Balance Sheet: It is expected that the import volume will increase month - on - month in November, and the market will enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation period [15]. - Supply and Demand of Light - colored Rubber: Light - colored rubber has been continuously reducing inventory, mainly because the cancellation rate of warehouse receipts is higher than the new rubber storage rate. However, the inflow of reserve rubber into the market has increased the spot pressure. The new warehouse receipts in October failed to meet expectations [16]. - Supply and Demand of Dark - colored Rubber: Attention should be paid to the raw material supply and price in Thailand's northeastern region, as well as the import and demand changes in the fourth quarter [18]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - Chinese Raw Material Prices and Spreads: The report presents seasonal charts of raw material prices and spreads in Yunnan and Hainan, including the price spreads between different raw materials and different rubber types [22][24]. - Chinese Rubber Processing Profits: Seasonal charts of processing profits for different rubber types in Hainan and Yunnan are provided, such as the processing profit of Hainan latex and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk RU01 contract [27]. - Thai Raw Material Prices and Spreads: Seasonal charts of Thai raw material prices and spreads are presented, including the price of Thai cup rubber and the spread between Thai latex and cup rubber [30]. - Thai Raw Material Spreads and Rubber Processing Profits: Seasonal charts of processing profits for different rubber types in Thailand are provided, such as the delivery profit of the Indian - standard NR main contract and the processing profit of Thai standard rubber [33]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand Inventory Data Display - Weather and Rainfall in Main - producing Areas: ONI index changes and cumulative precipitation data in Hainan, Yunnan, and Thailand are presented, which can affect rubber production [37][39][41]. - Main - producing Countries' Export Volume: Cumulative export volume and year - on - year data of natural rubber in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia are provided [43]. - Domestic Natural Rubber Supply - Demand Inventory: Cumulative supply, demand, and inventory data of domestic natural rubber, as well as their year - on - year changes, are presented [47]. - Chinese Natural Rubber Import Volume: Cumulative and monthly import volume data of natural rubber in China, as well as the year - on - year changes in the total positions of RU and NR, are provided [50]. - Chinese Natural Rubber Import Volume by Rubber Type: Monthly import volume data of different rubber types in China, such as concentrated latex, smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber, are presented [53]. - Light - colored Rubber Analysis: Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of light - colored rubber, including the cumulative supply, consumption, and weekly inventory of whole - milk and 3L rubber, are provided [56][58][61]. - Dark - colored Rubber Analysis: Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of dark - colored rubber, including the cumulative consumption, import volume, and inventory of different types of dark - colored rubber, as well as tire - related data such as tire factory operating rates, production, inventory, and profit, are provided [65][68][73]. 3.5 Price, Spread, and Basis Analysis - Price Charts of Different Rubber Types: Continuous price charts of whole - milk, smoked sheets, domestic standard rubber, Thai standard rubber, 3L, Thai mixed rubber, and latex are presented [88]. - Seasonal Prices of Different Rubber Types: Seasonal price charts of whole - milk, smoked sheets, domestic standard two - grade rubber, and Thai standard rubber are provided [90]. - Seasonal Spreads of Different Rubber Types: Seasonal spread charts between whole - milk rubber and other rubber types, such as smoked sheets, 3L, domestic standard rubber, Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and latex, are presented [92][94]. - Basis between Whole - milk Rubber and Shanghai Rubber RU: Basis charts between whole - milk rubber and different RU contracts, such as 09, 05, and 01 contracts, are provided [96]. - Spread between Shanghai Rubber RU and Mixed Rubber: Spread charts between different RU contracts and mixed rubber, such as RU01, RU05, and RU09 contracts, are provided [97][98]. - Basis between Thai Standard/Thai Mixed Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber NR: Basis charts between Thai standard/Thai mixed rubber and different NR contracts, such as 01 and 12 contracts, are provided [100]. - Inter - contract Spreads: Spread charts between different RU contracts, such as RU05 - RU09, RU11 - next - year RU01, etc., are provided [103]. - Inter - variety Spreads: Spread charts between different varieties, such as RU01 and NR01, RU01 and NR12, etc., are provided [105].