生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: The international raw sugar price has rebounded, but the fundamentals at home and abroad remain unchanged. The supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised downward, which slightly boosts sentiment. However, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the weekly export volume in November decreased year - on - year. In China, new sugar is on the market, and the main contract is under pressure at 5500. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies and hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. - Pulp: The pulp futures price has continued to strengthen, and the spot price has followed, but the increase is weaker. The short - term rise is mainly due to the increase in warehouse receipt costs. The demand improvement of downstream wood - pulp paper is limited. Although the global pulp shipment volume increased in September, the shipment volume of softwood pulp to China decreased year - on - year, and China's pulp imports decreased in October. The market is advised to wait and see as the upside space is limited [5]. - Offset Paper: The spot price remains stable, and the peak season has limited impact on the market. The cost is supported by the rising pulp futures price, but the upside is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and it is recommended to short near the resistance level [6][7]. - Cotton: The external market is weak. The USDA November report is bearish for US cotton, and the domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly. The demand improvement is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [8][9]. Fresh Fruit Sector - Apples: The production and high - quality fruit rate have decreased year - on - year, which provides core support. The apple warehousing in the producing areas is progressing steadily. The 01 contract is expected to remain strong at a high level, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 2605 contract cautiously [10]. - Jujubes: In November, the jujube futures price dropped significantly and then fluctuated at a low level. The supply has become more abundant, and the expectation of production reduction has failed. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in the fourth quarter. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold a reverse spread strategy or long positions in the 2605 contract with protective put options [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously as the inventory continues to decline year - on - year. For Jujube 2601, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the cooling of the production reduction expectation [20]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2601, short on rallies as the external market is under pressure and new sugar is on the market. For Pulp 2601, wait and see as the upside space is limited. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rallies as the demand improvement is limited. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously as the new cotton production is expected to increase and the consumption confidence is insufficient [20]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 9040 | - 198 | - 2.14 | | Jujube 2601 | 9590 | - 555 | - 5.47 | | Sugar 2601 | 5457 | - 26 | - 0.47 | | Pulp 2511 | 4872 | 34 | 0.70 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4278 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13580 | - 15 | - 0.11 | [21] b. Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4 | 0.00 | 0.7 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5760 | 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5500 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14806 | - 13 | - 590 | [24] Third Part: Sector Basis Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the basis of Apple 1 - month contract, Jujube main - continuous contract, etc. [32][33][34] Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the spread between Apple 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 contracts, etc. [42][44][46] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8622 | 901 | - 4507 | | Pulp | 220368 | - 1493 | - 157345 | | Cotton | 4401 | 221 | 1980 | [48] Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | The inventory continues to decline year - on - year, and the price is supported | Sell out - of - the - money put options | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increases and is concentrated on the market | Sell deep out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamentals are bearish | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The supply is temporarily abundant, and the price is expected to remain low | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the upward driving force of the fundamentals is weak | Sell put options with a strike price of 4900 and call options with a strike price of 5300 | [50] b. Option Data for Each Variety There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the trading volume, open interest, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options [52][53][56] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apples - Producing Area Weather: There are references to figures of the minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi [60][61][62]. - Export Situation: There is a reference to the figure of the monthly apple export volume [63][65]. - Inventory Situation: There are references to figures of the weekly apple storage inventory in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi [66][68]. b. Jujubes There are references to figures of the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market [70]. c. Sugar There are references to figures of the national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures spread of sugar [71][72][75]. d. Pulp There are references to figures of the pulp inventory in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood - pulp inventory days, and the weekly production of various types of paper [76][77][79]. e. Offset Paper There are references to figures of the capacity utilization rate, production, inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper [88][89][91]. f. Cotton There are references to figures of the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as the industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and production of cotton - related products in China [93][94][97]