股指期货将震荡整理黄金、白银期货将震荡偏弱铜、玻璃、纯碱、甲醇、PVC期货将偏弱震荡铁矿石、焦煤、原油、豆粕期货将偏强震荡:期货行情前瞻研究
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-11-17 05:33
  1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on November 17, 2025. It also presents the expected trends for the entire month of November 2025 for some futures contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - Stock Index Futures: Likely to oscillate and consolidate. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4639 and 4663 points, and support levels at 4575 and 4536 points [2]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The main contract T2512 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with support at 108.31 and 108.26 yuan, and resistance at 108.54 and 108.59 yuan [2]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The main contract TL2512 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with support at 116.0 and 115.8 yuan, and resistance at 116.5 and 116.8 yuan [2]. - Gold Futures: The main contract AU2512 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support levels at 922.0 and 914.3 yuan/gram, with resistance at 947.8 and 953.8 yuan/gram [2]. - Silver Futures: The main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support levels at 11843 and 11649 yuan/kg, with resistance at 12270 and 12350 yuan/kg [3]. - Copper Futures: The main contract CU2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 85700 and 84900 yuan/ton, and resistance at 87100 and 87600 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Futures: The main contract AL2601 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 21620 and 21540 yuan/ton, and resistance at 21840 and 21950 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina Futures: The main contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support levels at 2777 and 2752 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2819 and 2834 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc Futures: The main contract ZN2512 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 22390 and 22260 yuan/ton, and resistance at 22550 and 22620 yuan/ton [3]. - Nickel Futures: The main contract NI2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 116000 and 115000 yuan/ton, and resistance at 117500 and 117800 yuan/ton [3]. - Tin Futures: The main contract SN2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 287100 and 286200 yuan/ton, and resistance at 292000 and 293300 yuan/ton [3]. - Polysilicon Futures: The main contract PS2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 54700 and 55000 yuan/ton, and support at 53600 and 53200 yuan/ton [4]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The main contract LC2601 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with resistance at 90000 and 90800 yuan/ton, and support at 85000 and 83100 yuan/ton [4]. - Rebar Futures: The main contract RB2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 3020 and 3009 yuan/ton, and resistance at 3060 and 3083 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The main contract HC2601 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 3237 and 3229 yuan/ton, and resistance at 3263 and 3273 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron Ore Futures: The main contract I2601 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 785 and 788 yuan/ton, and support at 767 and 762 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal Futures: The main contract JM2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and may attack resistance levels at 1217 and 1227 yuan/ton, with support at 1192 and 1183 yuan/ton [6]. - Glass Futures: The main contract FG601 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support levels at 1018 and 1008 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1040 and 1050 yuan/ton [6]. - Soda Ash Futures: The main contract SA601 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support levels at 1214 and 1200 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1232 and 1239 yuan/ton [6]. - Crude Oil Futures: The new main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and may attack resistance levels at 465 and 469 yuan/barrel, with support at 457 and 454 yuan/barrel [6]. - Fuel Oil Futures: The main contract FU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and may attack resistance levels at 2645 and 2657 yuan/ton, with support at 2579 and 2564 yuan/ton [6]. - PTA Futures: The main contract TA601 is likely to oscillate strongly and may attack resistance levels at 4748 and 4778 yuan/ton, with support at 4686 and 4670 yuan/ton [6]. - PVC Futures: The main contract V2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support levels at 4560 and 4530 yuan/ton, with resistance at 4613 and 4635 yuan/ton [6]. - Methanol Futures: The main contract MA601 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support levels at 2020 and 2000 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2060 and 2075 yuan/ton [7]. - Soybean Meal Futures: The main contract M2601 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 3116 and 3125 yuan/ton, and support at 3070 and 3060 yuan/ton [7]. - Soybean Oil Futures: The main contract Y2601 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 8300 and 8334 yuan/ton, and support at 8246 and 8228 yuan/ton [7]. - Palm Oil Futures: The main contract P2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and may attack resistance levels at 8774 and 8836 yuan/ton, with resistance at 8644 and 8616 yuan/ton [7]. - Natural Rubber Futures: The main contract RU2601 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation, with resistance at 15290 and 15350 yuan/ton, and support at 15090 and 15050 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - Policy and Leadership Speeches: President Xi Jinping's article emphasizes developing new - quality productivity during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Premier Li Qiang's meeting focuses on the "Two Major" construction and promoting consumption. Han Wenxiu advocates cultivating emerging and future industries [8][9]. - Economic Data: In October, China's industrial added - value, service production index, and social consumption showed growth, while fixed - asset investment and real - estate development investment declined. The housing prices in 70 cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [9][10]. - Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Minister Lan Fuan explains the role of active fiscal policy during the 15th Five - Year Plan. The central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of 6 - month term repurchase operations in November, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan [10][11]. - Regulatory Policies: The State Administration for Market Regulation issues the draft guidelines for anti - monopoly compliance of Internet platforms. The US will release a series of economic data, and Trump adjusts the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [13][14]. 3.3 Commodity Futures Information - New Futures Contracts: Platinum and palladium futures contracts will be listed on November 27, 2025, with a trading margin of 9% and a price limit of 14% [16]. - Precious Metals: In October, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $8.2 billion, and on November 14, international precious metal futures generally closed lower [16]. - Crude Oil: On November 14, US crude oil futures closed higher, driven by geopolitical risks [17]. - Base Metals: On November 14, London base metals closed lower due to uncertainties in Fed policies and weak economic data [18]. - Exchange Rates: On November 14, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the US dollar index rose [19]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Stock Index Futures: On November 14, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [19][20]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On November 14, the ten - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the 30 - year contract rising slightly [44]. - Gold Futures: On November 14, the gold futures main contract AU2512 showed a downward trend during both daytime and night trading, with increased short - term downward pressure [51]. - Silver Futures: On November 14, the silver futures main contract AG2602 showed a downward trend during both daytime and night trading, with increased short - term downward pressure [58]. - Copper Futures: On November 14, the copper futures main contract CU2512 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [64]. - Aluminum Futures: On November 14, the aluminum futures main contract AL2601 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [69]. - Alumina Futures: On November 14, the alumina futures main contract AO2601 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [71]. - Zinc Futures: On November 14, the zinc futures main contract ZN2512 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [74]. - Nickel Futures: On November 14, the nickel futures main contract NI2512 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [77]. - Tin Futures: On November 14, the tin futures main contract SN2512 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [83]. - Polysilicon Futures: On November 14, the polysilicon futures main contract PS2601 showed a slight downward trend, with a slight increase in short - term downward pressure [87]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On November 14, the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2601 showed a slight downward trend, with a slight increase in short - term downward pressure [89]. - Rebar Futures: On November 14, the rebar futures main contract RB2601 showed a slight upward trend, with weak rebound momentum [94]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: On November 14, the hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2601 showed a slight upward trend, with weak rebound momentum [96]. - Iron Ore Futures: On November 14, the iron ore futures main contract I2601 showed a consolidation trend, with weakened short - term rebound momentum [100]. - Coking Coal Futures: On November 14, the coking coal futures main contract JM2601 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [104]. - Glass Futures: On November 14, the glass futures main contract FG601 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [107]. - Soda Ash Futures: On November 14, the soda ash futures main contract SA601 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [112]. - Crude Oil Futures: On November 14, the crude oil futures main contract SC2601 showed an upward trend, with short - term rebound [116]. - Fuel Oil Futures: On November 14, the fuel oil futures main contract FU2601 showed an upward trend, with short - term rebound [121]. - PTA Futures: On November 14, the PTA futures main contract TA601 showed a consolidation trend, with weakened short - term upward momentum [123]. - PVC Futures: On November 14, the PVC futures main contract V2601 showed a slight upward trend, with continued short - term slight rebound [125]. - Methanol Futures: On November 14, the methanol futures main contract MA601 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [127]. - Soybean Meal Futures: On November 14, the soybean meal futures main contract M2601 showed an upward trend, with continued short - term upward movement [129]. - Soybean Oil Futures: On November 14, the soybean oil futures main contract Y2601 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [130]. - Palm Oil Futures: On November 14, the palm oil futures main contract P2601 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [132]. - Natural Rubber Futures: On November 14, the natural rubber futures main contract RU2601 showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [133].