南华期货甲醇产业周报：01延续弱势-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Methanol continues its downward trend. The 01 contract may continue to decline as the fundamentals offer no support, and the pressure on ports is hard to relieve due to increased shipments from Iran. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions, and conduct 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [1]. - The short - term trend of methanol is range - bound, with the 2601 contract expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is suggested to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. - The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Methanol is in a downward trend. The 01 contract's fundamentals lack support. Although there was a rebound in the market due to industry protests against low prices, inland methanol enterprises still have profits. The increased shipments from Iran have made it difficult to relieve the pressure on ports. Despite the relatively strong thermal coal prices, they cannot provide cost support for Henan methanol. The higher - than - usual temperature in Iran may delay gas restrictions until mid - November. The November shipments have exceeded expectations, and port inventories are likely to remain high. Later, the port will flow back to Shandong, and then the Henan market will decline [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Base - spread Strategy: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2036, with the futures price dropping significantly and the 01 basis strengthening by 10 [11]. - Calendar - spread Strategy: This week, as the shipments from Iran continued to accelerate, the market no longer expects early gas restrictions this year, and the 1 - 5 spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation [11]. - Trend Judgment: Methanol is expected to trade in a range in the short term. The 2601 contract is expected to trade between 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the short - put options of methanol 2601 and simultaneously sell call options [12]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - There are records of the implementation status of previous strategies, including the holding of short - put, short - call, 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage strategies, as well as the stop - profit of long positions [19]. 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - There are various charts showing the inventory situation of methanol ports, including the weekly inventory seasonality of Chinese methanol ports, the inventory seasonality of methanol ports in different regions, and the inventory situation of warehouses in Jiangsu Province [35]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Price Range Forecast: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [61]. - Hedging Strategy Table: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management under different scenarios, including using futures and options for hedging [61]. - Positive Information: The second - phase 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong is expected to start production as early as the end of November [62]. - Negative Information: Iran's shipments were 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, and 0.69 million tons in November [63]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The fundamentals offer limited support. Although producers in the production areas have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics and transportation, they still intend to maintain low inventories and mainly sell at reduced prices in the first half of the week. Downstream demand has decreased, and some traders are short - selling, causing the market in the sales areas to decline synchronously [65]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Inland Market: In the second half of the week, the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in Inner Mongolia boosted market sentiment. As the methanol prices in the production areas have reached the bottom, traders are cautious about short - selling, and some buyers have entered the market for procurement, leading to a halt in the decline and a stabilization in the inland market [66]. - Port Market: Under the pressure of high overseas supply expectations and high port inventories, the port methanol market is expected to continue its weak downward trend next week [66]. - Spread Analysis: The 1 - 5 spread has weakened this week mainly because of the increased shipments from Iran [73]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking - There are various price charts showing the prices of coal, methanol in different markets, and related products over different time periods [77][78][82]. 4.2 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the production costs and profits of methanol produced from different raw materials (coal, natural gas, coke oven gas) in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Shandong, etc.) [89][90][93]. 4.3 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly operating rates of different methanol production methods (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, coal combined - alcohol, natural gas, etc.) and downstream products (MTO, MTBE, acetic acid, etc.) [96][99][100]. 4.4 Import and Export Price and Profit Tracking - There are charts showing the import volumes of methanol from different countries (Malaysia, Venezuela, Iran), the external market structure of methanol, and the import profits of Iranian methanol [129][130]. 4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - There are charts showing the weekly capacity utilization rate of foreign methanol, the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants, and the weekly production volumes of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol [133][134][136]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data of methanol from January to December 2025, including production, consumption, and inventory changes [140]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - This week, in domestic methanol plants, there were both maintenance and restarts in the Northwest. Some plants in Shandong and Inner Mongolia restarted, while some plants in East China were shut down for maintenance. Some plants in Central China restarted but have not yet produced products [141]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Downstream MTO plants such as Xingxing and Chengzhi have resumed or increased their loads. The second - phase MTO of Lianhong is planned to be completed earlier than expected and has started stockpiling. Iran maintains high shipments [145].