玉米周报：阶段性供应压力放缓玉米期现货价格反弹-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The corn market is expected to trade in a range, with the C2601 contract oscillating between 2000 and 2300 yuan/ton. The cost support at around 2000 yuan/ton is strong, and there is rigid demand for corn. However, the traditional selling pressure in the fourth quarter and the bumper harvest of new - season corn limit the upside potential of prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Corn spot and futures prices are strong, and the national corn selling progress is 24%, with a 2% week - on - week increase but a slowdown in growth rate. North China's selling progress is 23%, and Northeast China's is 19%, both relatively fast year - on - year. However, the progress in each province has slowed down to some extent. The price increase is due to factors such as price hikes by state - owned grain depots and traders, but there are issues with export ports, and downstream enterprises' willingness to build inventories at high prices is average [10]. Corn Import - Corn import volume has significantly decreased. In September 2025, the import volume of ordinary corn was 60,000 tons, an 80.65% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 890,000 tons, a 92.92% decrease compared to the same period last year. The USDA estimates that China's corn import volume in the 2025/26 season will be 8 million tons, 2 million tons less than the previous forecast [17][18]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat is out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has increased. In September 2025, the import volume of barley was 1229300 tons, a 30.86% year - on - year increase, and the import volume of sorghum was 674600 tons, a 30.53% year - on - year decrease [21][23]. Demand Feed and Livestock Farming - The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the farming profit is poor. In October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 88.0%, 2.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Self - breeding and self - raising pig farming, broiler farming, and egg - laying hen farming are all in a loss state [33][34]. Deep - processing - The production profit of deep - processing has deteriorated again, and the consumption of alcohol is relatively high. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises has increased, with Shandong at around 78% and Heilongjiang at around 92%. The production of corn starch has increased to 328,400 tons, and the downstream pick - up volume has remained stable at 383,400 tons. The consumption of corn by alcohol enterprises has slightly decreased to about 420,000 tons [52]. Inventory - Channels and downstream inventories are still low, while starch inventories are significantly high. As of November 7, the inventory of the four northern ports is about 1.07 million tons, the inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized at about 20 days of available inventory, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is about 2.74 million tons. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises is about 1.13 million tons, a record high in the same period in the past eight years [69][70][71]. Basis and Spread - The spreads between different corn contracts (9 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 9), starch contracts, and the spread between corn and starch contracts are provided, showing different price differences at different times [129][131]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On November 13, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [133].