国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: A decrease in LME inventory supports prices [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading within a range [2][11]. - Lead: An increase in domestic inventory is pressuring prices [2][14]. - Tin: Pulled back from high levels [2][17]. - Aluminum: Under short - term pressure [2][23]. - Alumina: Fundamental pressure persists [2][23]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel: Nickel prices broke through support levels and are under pressure, moving in a volatile manner [2][26]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but there is limited downside [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver contracts showed declines, with significant drops in night - trading sessions. Trading volumes and positions of some contracts changed, and ETF holdings also had corresponding adjustments. For example, the closing price of Comex gold 2512 was 4084.40, down 2.16% [4]. - Inventory: Inventories of gold and silver in different markets decreased to varying degrees. For instance, Comex silver inventory (in ounces) decreased by 1,876,069 [4]. - News: There were important macro and industry news, such as the publication of important articles in Qiushi Journal, the convening of the State Council executive meeting, and the determination of the schedule for important US data releases [4][7]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [6]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of copper contracts decreased, and trading volumes and positions also changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 86,900, down 0.74% [8]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, which supported prices [8]. - News: There were macro and industry news, including the convening of the State Council executive meeting, the inclusion of copper in the new US critical minerals list, and the reopening of the border between Tanzania and Zambia [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: Zinc prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22425, down 1.39% [11]. - Inventory: Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 399 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased by 1175 tons [11]. - News: There were news about the schedule of important US data releases and the division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [12]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: Lead prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17505, down 0.93% [14]. - Inventory: Shanghai lead futures inventory increased by 5203 tons, while LME lead inventory decreased by 1500 tons [14]. - News: There were news about the convening of the State Council executive meeting and the division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: Tin prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 291,450, down 2.24% [19]. - Inventory: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 234 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 10 tons [19]. - News: There were important macro and industry news, such as the publication of important articles in Qiushi Journal, the convening of the State Council executive meeting, and the determination of the schedule for important US data releases [20]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices showed different degrees of decline, and trading volumes and positions also changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21840, down 210 [23]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged, LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons [23]. - News: There were news about the convening of the State Council executive meeting and the implementation of active fiscal policies [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: Nickel and stainless steel prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 117,080, down 1,850 [27]. - Industry News: There were news about the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, the suspension of a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia [27][28]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31].