沪锡日评20251117：多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压锡价-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Indonesia's Bangka Belitung lead to a tight supply - demand expectation. However, multiple Fed officials' hawkish stance on a December rate cut may put pressure on tin prices. The high tin price also leads to less downstream just - in - time procurement. Overall, the price of Shanghai tin may be adjusted [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Data Shanghai Tin Futures - On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai tin spot was 298,140, a decrease of 6,690 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 151,802 lots, a decrease of 47,866 lots; the open interest was 43,594 lots, a decrease of 7,253 lots; the inventory was 8,699 tons, an increase of 234 tons. The basis of Shanghai tin (spot - futures) was - 2,140, an increase of 2,790; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai tin was - 890, an increase of 1,440; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract of Shanghai tin was - 390, a decrease of 60; the spread between the second - continuous and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai tin was - 110, an increase of 70 [1]. London Tin Futures - On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was 36,860, a decrease of 205 compared to the previous day. The spread between the 0 - 3 - month contracts of LME tin futures was - 87.5, a decrease of 102.8; the spread between the 3 - 15 - month contracts of LME tin futures was 131, a decrease of 36. The global inventory of LME tin was 3,065 tons, with no change; the registered warrants of LME tin were 2,950, with no change; the cancelled warrants of LME tin were 115, with no change. The ratio of Shanghai tin to London tin was 8.04, a decrease of 0.14 [1]. 4. Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation Supply - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, and Indonesia has closed 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung. The processing fee of domestic tin concentrates has dropped significantly, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi, China, have increased (or remained flat) compared to last week [1]. Demand - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month. The new energy vehicle and artificial intelligence fields bring optimistic demand expectations, but the high tin price leads to less downstream just - in - time procurement [1]. Inventory - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the social inventory of tin ingots in China, and the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange have all increased compared to last week [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - Lightly short the main contract on rallies. Pay attention to the support level around 260,000 - 270,000 and the resistance level around 300,000 - 310,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 33,000 - 35,000 and the resistance level around 38,000 - 40,000 for London tin [1].