股指期货周报：冲高回落，仍需整固-20251117

Report Title - The Weekly Report on Stock Index Futures by Caida Futures [1][2] Report Date - November 17, 2025 [2] Researcher - Name: Li Jinwen; Qualification Number: F0244287; Investment Consulting Number: Z0012495 [3] Report Core View - The stock index futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling last week and still need consolidation. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short - term to digest pressure and accumulate momentum [3][4][6] Market Review Stock Index Futures - Last week, the four stock index futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with relatively large adjustments in CSI 300 and CSI 500. The basis of all four futures varieties changed little, and all the main contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The futures - spot basis of the main contracts were: IH at - 8.03, IF at - 27.74, IC at - 98.06, and IM at - 130.76 [4] A - share Market - The A - share market last week featured "index range - bound fluctuations, accelerated structural rotation, and cautious capital preference". The stable economic operation provided bottom support, but the fluctuations of some data restricted the upward space of the index. By the end of Friday, the main stock indices generally declined slightly, and trading volume continued to shrink slightly. There was still a differentiation in the sector structure, and capital quickly switched between policy - beneficiary sectors and low - valuation sectors. After the impact of the third - quarter reports faded, the market pricing logic gradually shifted to next year's performance expectations and policy - beneficiary directions. Overall, capital risk preference converged, and more attention was paid to the safety margin and sustainability of prosperity in structural selection [4] Comprehensive Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - The release of October's macro - economic data was the main focus of the market. On November 14, it was announced that the national economy continued to develop steadily: industrial production and the service industry remained stable; market sales continued to expand; and the employment situation was generally stable. In October, the year - on - year CPI changed from a 0.3% decline last month to a 0.2% increase, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed for the third consecutive month to 2.1%, indicating the initial signs of domestic demand recovery. Meanwhile, the interpretation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" continued, and the market continuously discussed the future industrial policies and measures to expand domestic demand [5][6] Market Outlook - The October economic data further confirmed the resilience of China's economic recovery, especially the marginal improvement in prices helped stabilize market expectations. However, the full recovery of effective demand still requires more time and policy support. In this context, the market may continue to fluctuate in the short - term to digest pressure and accumulate momentum [6]