Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term iron water demand stops falling and rebounds, driving the stabilization and rebound of rebar and iron ore. For rebar, the short - term supply is affected by production restrictions and maintenance, and the demand faces seasonal weakening pressure. It is expected to maintain high - level consolidation with the support of coal and coke costs and start a technical rebound. For iron ore, the short - term import shipment volume decreases slightly, the demand side shows a slight increase in daily iron water volume, and it is expected to maintain a technical rebound [3][5][7][8][10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Futures - This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend driven by the reduction of short - selling main positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3053 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.63% [5] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream rebar regions began to rise slightly, and the overall trading volume was average. As of Friday, the national average rebar quotation increased by 17 yuan to 3242 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price adjustments [5] Fundamental - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32% month - on - month and an increase of 0.73% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, an increase of 0.99% month - on - month and an increase of 0.22% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 68.13%, an increase of 1.1% month - on - month and a decrease of 3.3% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.18%, an increase of 2.31% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.85% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 8.54 tons to 200.0 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - Short - process steel mills: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3176 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan month - on - month. The profit of rebar electric furnaces was a loss of 276 yuan, and the loss margin shrank by 4 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces began to rise slightly this week [5] - Long - process steel mills: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 3002 yuan, an increase of 52 yuan month - on - month. The profit of rebar blast furnaces was a loss of 112 yuan, an increase of 52 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic blast furnaces began to decline slightly, while the capacity utilization rate began to rise slightly. The loss margin of long - process steel mills continued to expand [8] - Demand: This week, the building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of rebar continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.03 tons to 9.67 tons month - on - month, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 2.15 tons to 216.37 tons month - on - month. In absolute terms, the apparent consumption of rebar remained at a low level in the same period [8] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 16.37 tons to 576.17 tons. In absolute terms, the current rebar inventory remained at a low level in the same period [8] - Basis: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, with a premium of 137 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 19 yuan compared with last week. The current rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the probability of rebar basis contraction is relatively large in the later period [8] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the rebar output continues to decline due to production restrictions and maintenance on the supply side. The demand side faces seasonal weakening pressure, and the apparent consumption of rebar decreases slightly. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will maintain high - level consolidation with the support of coal and coke costs and start a technical rebound [8] Iron Ore Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a slight rebound driven by the reduction of short - selling main positions. As of Friday, it closed at 772.5 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 1.58% [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported ore varieties showed mixed trends, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates continued to decline steadily. The overall trading volume improved. As of Friday, the prices of different iron ore varieties in different ports had different adjustments [8] Fundamental - Supply: As of the 10th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2548.6 tons, a decrease of 210.6 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Australia was 1810.8 tons, a decrease of 84.3 tons month - on - month, and the volume shipped to China was 1534.0 tons, a decrease of 71.8 tons month - on - month. The shipment volume from Brazil was 737.8 tons, a decrease of 126.3 tons month - on - month. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons month - on - month; the arrival volume of six northern ports was 1525.8 tons, a decrease of 60.1 tons month - on - month [10] - Demand: The current daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 326.95 tons, an increase of 6.02 tons month - on - month. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot is 106.9 tons, a decrease of 18.0 tons month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with last week and an increase of 0.94 tons compared with last year. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 292.63 tons, an increase of 3.93 tons month - on - month [10] - Inventory: As of the 14th, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports continued to increase slightly, currently at 15129.71 tons, an increase of 230.88 tons month - on - month. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9076.01 tons, an increase of 66.07 tons month - on - month [10] - Basis: As of Friday, the best - delivery product, the iron ore powder at Rizhao Port, was quoted at 821 yuan/ton, with a premium of 49 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, a contraction of 7 yuan compared with last week. It is expected that the probability of the iron ore basis starting to contract is relatively large [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the import shipment volume of iron ore continues to decline slightly, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decrease slightly next week, and the port inventory pressure will be relieved. The daily molten iron volume on the demand side begins to increase slightly, and the steel mills' daily consumption rebounds synchronously. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures will start a technical rebound [10][11]
螺纹钢、铁矿石周报：短期铁水需求止跌回升，带动螺矿企稳反弹-20251117
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-11-17 05:51