铜价区间震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The copper price is likely to experience high - level range - bound fluctuations in the short term. The end of the domestic peak season and the traditional copper demand continue to drag down the price, and the spot market is sensitive to high copper prices. There is still a trend of the copper price rising and then falling, with attention on the 88,000 yuan/ton resistance level [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of fluctuating and strengthening. Supported by supply disruptions at the mine end and expectations of macro - economic recovery, but facing significant resistance above. The copper price rose and then fell. On Friday, affected by the decline of foreign metals, Shanghai copper weakened slightly, closing at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 1.1% from the previous week [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation - The processing fee for imported copper concentrates remained negative with little change, and the short - term supply at the mine end was still tight. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that if the safety assessment of the Grasberg mine is completed and it is considered safe, Freeport will be allowed to resume operation. The resumption time needs to be followed up [4]. - In November, SMM estimated that maintenance would affect production by 48,000 tons. Due to the continuous rise in copper prices, some smelters postponed maintenance to December again, and SMM expected a slight decline in electrolytic copper production in November [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 4.91 percentage points to 66.88% week - on - week and decreased by 15.92 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to increase by 1.66 percentage points to 68.54% week - on - week this week. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement and is sensitive to prices [4]. - The inventories of the world's three major exchanges increased [4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. government ended a 43 - day shutdown, and the policy shift boosted market confidence. The U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, providing support for the copper price. However, the expectations of interest rate cuts declined, and the macro - level impact was complex [4].