Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium maintain a tight balance. The downstream demand is strong, and it is expected that the subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. The price is expected to continue a strong and volatile trend, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the mining certificates of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply Side - Last week, the production of carbonate lithium increased by 385 tons week-on-week to 23,850 tons, and the production in October increased by 10% month-on-month to 105,040 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% to 109,000 tons, from Nigeria increased by 14.4% to 120,000 tons, and from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons. In September, the import of carbonate lithium was 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium with purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand Side - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers in September increased by 8% month - on - month. In October, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month increase and a 50.5% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 28.2 GWh, a 5.5% month - on - month increase and a 33.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 166.0 GWh, a 13.3% month - on - month increase and a 50.8% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are also expected to continue to support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market sales in China [6]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a destocking state, with the factory inventory of carbonate lithium decreasing by 160 tons and the futures inventory decreasing by 162 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down. In October, the domestic production of carbonate lithium increased by 10% month - on - month. In September, the import of lithium concentrate was 711,000 tons, a 14.7% month - on - month increase, and the total import of carbonate lithium in September was about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. The downstream demand is strong, and the domestic supply and demand maintain a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production schedule of cathode materials in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month, and the production schedule in September increased by 8% month - on - month. The risk of mining certificates in Yichun, Jiangxi persists. With the profit recovery, the production of lithium from ore continues to increase, and the cost center moves up. At present, there is still no conclusion on the submission and review of the reserve verification reports of Yichun mining enterprises. The downstream production schedule exceeds expectations, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end. During the peak season, downstream enterprises actively purchase carbonate lithium, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and continue to pay attention to the progress of the mining certificates of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and factory monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, average prices of carbonate lithium and lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of different raw - material - based carbonate lithium, differences between domestic power battery production and loading volume, production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, average production cost of carbonate lithium, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, and market prices of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [8][11][13][18][20][23][24][26][30][32][36][38][40][42]. - In October 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 19.56% from salt lakes, 23.55% from lithium mica, and 44.87% from lithium spodumene [24][25].
碳酸锂周报：旺季去库延续，价格偏强震荡-20251117
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-17 05:52