长江期货粕类油脂周报-20251117

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Meal and Oil Weekly Report - Date: November 17, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - For soybean meal, the loss of crushing profit supports its strong operation. The US soybean supply - demand tightens, and domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate widely with the US soybean, but its price is expected to be slightly stronger due to profit losses and the de - stocking cycle [6][7]. - For oils, the reports (USDA11 and MPOB10) have a neutral - bearish impact, and the upward rebound of futures prices is limited. In the long - term, the market should focus on potential positive factors such as biodiesel policies and weather conditions [81][82]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Period and Spot Market - As of November 14, the East China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton weekly; the M2601 contract closed at 3092 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton weekly; the basis was 01 - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Before the release of the US soybean supply - demand report, the US soybean price rose sharply but then fell back due to lower - than - expected yield cuts. Domestic soybean meal followed the cost increase, but the spot supply pressure continued, and the basis weakened [7][9]. b. Supply - The USDA November report showed that the US soybean price dropped to 53 cents/bushel, with the yield higher than expected and the ending stocks reduced to 290 million bushels. As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 58.4%. In China, the November soybean arrival is normal, but the 12 - January purchases are slow due to profit losses, with a strong de - stocking expectation [7]. c. Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, with high livestock and poultry inventories, supporting a feed demand increase of over 7%. The soybean meal addition ratio increased, and the fourth - quarter demand is expected to increase by over 5%, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory increased to 761.95 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory decreased to 99.86 million tons [7]. d. Cost - The 25/26 US soybean planting cost dropped to 1150 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 100 cents/bushel. Based on certain calculations, the domestic soybean meal cost is 3070 yuan/ton [7]. e. Market Summary and Strategy - The US soybean is expected to fluctuate widely, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be slightly stronger. The strategy suggests range - bound operations for the M2601 contract and for spot enterprises to sell the basis on rallies and roll long positions [7]. 2. Oils a. Period and Spot Market - As of the week of November 14, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices showed different trends. Palm oil was the weakest due to the MPOB report and poor export data, while rapeseed oil was the strongest due to supply concerns [82][83]. b. Palm Oil - The MPOB October report showed an increase in both production and demand, with the ending stocks rising to 2.46 million tons. The SPPOMA data indicated a 2.16% decline in production from November 1 - 10. However, exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5 - 12.3%. In China, the 10 - November palm oil purchases are similar to 2024, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [82]. c. Soybean Oil - The USDA November report had a neutral - bearish impact, with a reduction in both inventory and export. The US soybean futures are expected to be under pressure, and the domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly. In the long - term, the soybean supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, limiting the de - stocking speed [82]. d. Rapeseed Oil - Due to concerns about the continued tight supply of rapeseed before the arrival of Australian rapeseed in late November and the Canadian biodiesel policy, the domestic rapeseed oil is in a slow de - stocking process. However, considering the potential improvement in China - Canada relations, the upward space for rapeseed oil is limited [82]. e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, the upward rebound of domestic oils is limited. The strategy suggests not chasing the rise and taking a long - on - dips approach for the 01 contracts. For arbitrage, pay attention to the long - 1 - short - 5 spread for rapeseed oil and the short - 1 - long - 5 spread for palm oil [82].