国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251117

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - Silver: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - Copper: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - Zinc: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - Lead: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - Tin: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - Aluminum: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - Nickel: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - Industrial Silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - Iron Ore: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - Coke: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - Log: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - LPG: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - Propylene: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - PVC: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - Fuel Oil: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - Offset Printing Paper: Oscillating at a low level [4] - Pure Benzene: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - Palm Oil: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - Soybean Oil: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - Soybean Meal: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - Soybean No.1: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - Corn: Oscillating [4] - Sugar: Range consolidation [4] - Cotton: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - Egg: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - Live Pig: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - Peanut: Pay attention to the spot market [4]