华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with the price facing pressure when rising due to downstream differentiation in the off - season [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a relatively strong performance. The US dollar index fell for two consecutive weeks, and the longest - running government shutdown in US history ended on Thursday, resulting in a lack of key economic data for policy - making [2] - Domestically, the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. Overseas, the resumption of production in Guinea's mines is difficult, and there is an expectation of supply tightening due to the approaching heating season in the north [3] - Last week, the SMM weekly aluminum water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term [3] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to Monday and 1,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The premium of the US spot aluminum price has reached a record high [3] - There is a strong positive macro - atmosphere, and the expected tightening of overseas supply gives funds the motivation to go long. However, the off - season is coming, and the downstream is weakening, with increased inventory pressure [4]