财达期货｜贵金属周报-20251117

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with gold and silver prices soaring mid - week and silver hitting a record high, but then sharply correcting on Thursday and Friday. The international gold price returned to $4000 per ounce, and the silver price returned to around $50 per ounce. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged despite high volatility [3]. - Trade war easing has a bearish impact on gold prices, while the escalation of geopolitical tensions is favorable for gold [3][4]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, but it is likely to accelerate rate cuts next year. The short - term decline in gold and silver prices is directly related to the reduced probability of a December rate cut [9][10]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the gold and silver markets were highly volatile. Gold and silver prices rose sharply mid - week, and silver set a new record high. However, they declined significantly on Thursday and Friday. The international gold price reached $4000 per ounce, and the silver price was around $50 per ounce [3]. Trade Policy - On November 14, the US White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to adjust the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", excluding some agricultural products from the additional tariffs. The updated tariff exemption list will take effect on November 13, 2025, at 0:01 EST [3]. - This is a sign of trade war easing, which has a bearish impact on gold prices [4]. Geopolitical Situation - Geopolitical tensions have escalated. In the Russia - Ukraine situation, a German military official said Germany is ready to fight Moscow, and Ukraine stated it will not negotiate with Russia for the time being, intensifying regional tensions [5][6]. - On November 14, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova said Russia has no plan to attack NATO countries but will respond with all means if attacked [8]. Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The US government reopened, and some economic data affected by the shutdown will be released later. The uncertainty of data makes it more likely for the Fed to pause rate cuts before getting reliable new data [9]. - Some Fed officials, represented by Logan, find it difficult to support another rate cut in December, indicating a growing internal divide. The market's expectation of a December rate cut dropped from 62% to 51% last Thursday and further to 46% by Friday [9]. - Although the probability of a December rate cut has decreased, it is still possible. If the US stock market continues to fall, it may force the Fed to cut rates. A new Fed chair, likely a dovish figure approved by Trump, is expected to accelerate rate cuts next year [9][10].