海外利率周报20251117：联邦政府开门，但市场主要交易降息预期回落-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The market is mainly trading on the decline in interest rate cut expectations despite the reopening of the US federal government. Although short - term US bonds may be pressured by interest rate cut expectations, the long - term interest rate cut path is clear, and the correction window is worth left - hand side layout [2][3] - Different types of assets in the global market show significant structural differentiation, with funds rebalancing between regions and styles [23][24] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels this week, far exceeding market expectations. The current supply - demand pattern is short - term loose, which is expected to suppress the rebound of oil prices. If demand remains weak, the inventory accumulation trend may continue and put pressure on the December market [10] - ADP's latest weekly employment trend estimate shows that US companies cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25, indicating a slowdown in autumn recruitment. The labor market is moving from weak growth to a net loss [10] 1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - US: The US federal government reopened, but the market mainly traded on the decline in interest rate cut expectations. FOMC members' hawkish signals and the uncertainty of data after the government's reopening led to a decline in the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut from 67% to 44%. The 10 - year Treasury yield reached 4.14%, and the Nasdaq index fell significantly. In the long run, the interest rate cut path is clear [2][11][12] - Auction Results: The 3 - year US note auction was stable and strong; the 10 - year US note auction was slightly weak; the 30 - year US Treasury auction was weak [14] - Europe and Japan: Japanese bond short - term yields were basically flat, while medium - and long - term yields increased significantly, and the yield curve steepened. German bond yields rose overall, and the 10 - year German Treasury yield reached 2.7%, the highest since early October [4][22] 2. Other Major Asset Reviews - Equity: European and Asian emerging markets were relatively strong. The A - share Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, the Hang Seng Index rose, the Nasdaq fell, and European stock markets such as the UK, Germany, and France performed well. Emerging markets like India, Vietnam, and South Korea also rose, showing a rebalancing of funds [23] - Commodity: Precious metals led the rise, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products rose slightly, while black metals and Bitcoin weakened. Gold and silver rose by 1.9% and 6.8% respectively, and Bitcoin fell by 8.5% [24] - Foreign Exchange: The Swiss franc led the rise, and the Japanese yen fell significantly. The US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, and other currencies also showed different trends [25] 3. Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts, including the rise and fall of global major economies' Treasury bond interest rates, the rise and fall of global major stock indexes, the rise and fall of major commodities, and the rise and fall of global major foreign exchange rates, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [32][35][37][42]