集运日报：11月运价未达宣涨幅度，盘面多空博弈，已建议提前布局02合约，关注12月运价支撑逻辑-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the freight rate did not reach the announced increase, and there was a long - short game in the market. It is recommended to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The core is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [2] - With frequent long - short information and no obvious recovery of November freight rates, the market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the market fluctuates in a wide range. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Freight Rate Index - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 999.69 points, a 5.12% decrease from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1504.80 points, a 24.5% increase; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, a 7.42% increase; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1329.71 points, a 4.9% increase; the NCFI (US West route) was 1052.43 points, a 21.99% decrease [1] - On November 14, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1451.38 points, a decrease of 43.72 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 1094.03 points, a 3.4% increase; the SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, a 7.1% increase; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, a 2.7% increase; the SCFI US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, a 17.59% decrease; the CCFI (US West route) was 846.24 points, a 3.9% increase [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45), the preliminary service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2] - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating overall stable business activities of Chinese enterprises [2] - In the US in October, the preliminary S&P Global service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2] Main Contract Information - On November 14, the main contract 2602 closed at 1605.0, with a decline of 1.16%, a trading volume of 20,000 lots, and an open interest of 38,000 lots, an increase of 759 lots from the previous day [3] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long in the range of 1550 - 1600 for the EC2602 contract, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold positions stubbornly, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try lightly due to large fluctuations in each contract [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Information - On November 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel's policy is that "a Palestinian state will not be established", the IDF will garrison the Hermon mountain peak and its security zone, the Gaza Strip will be demilitarized, and the IDF will continue operations until the last tunnel is demolished [5] - On November 10, the Houthi rebels warned that if the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip is broken and Israel resumes its offensive, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [5]