行业点评报告：10月社零增速延续回落，部分消费结构性回暖

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while the overall retail sales growth has declined, there is a marginal improvement in food and beverage consumption driven by holiday spending. The expectation is for more fiscal policies to support domestic demand recovery [4][5] - The white liquor sector is nearing a bottoming phase, suggesting it is a good time for gradual investment. Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Yanghe Brewery [4] - In the mass consumer goods sector, there is a focus on growth through new channels, products, and markets, with key companies to watch being Weilong Delicious, Ximai Food, Yanjinpuzi, and Bairun Co [4] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In October 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.1 percentage points. The food, beverage, tobacco, and catering sectors showed marginal recovery due to holiday consumption [5][8] - Specific growth rates for October 2025 include: grain and oil food at +9.1%, beverages at +7.1%, and tobacco at +4.1%, indicating a positive trend in essential consumption [5][10][11] Quarterly Outlook - The report anticipates a continued decline in retail sales growth for Q4 2025, but expects marginal improvements in food and beverage consumption. The October retail sales growth decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to Q3 2025, primarily due to weaker subsidy effects and high base comparisons [5][6] Industry Observations - The white liquor industry is still in a bottoming phase, with structural differentiation in consumption patterns. While high-end gifting remains stable, business consumption is lagging [6] - The snack food sector shows resilience, benefiting from high-frequency demand and holiday consumption, with leading companies enhancing competitiveness through innovation and channel expansion [6]