铜周报：宏观仍不明朗，铜价高位震荡-20251117

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Uncertainty Persists, Copper Prices Fluctuate at High Levels [1] Report Date - November 17, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, closing at 86,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.11%. The end of the US government shutdown boosted market confidence, but the Fed's internal differences on interest rates made the market cautious. Fundamentally, the copper concentrate TC remains at a historically low negative level, and the shortage of copper mines supports the medium - and long - term price center of copper. Domestic electrolytic copper production may remain low due to anti - involution expectations in copper smelting and anode copper supply. The decline in copper prices has boosted terminal demand, and copper prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level [5]. - The US government shutdown end boosted market confidence, but the upcoming release of employment and inflation data adds uncertainty. The Fed's policy expectation has turned cautious, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has dropped significantly. Fundamentally, the copper concentrate TC has rebounded slightly but remains negative, strongly supporting copper prices. After the peak season, high copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and overall consumption is average. Although domestic and foreign inventories are stable, there is a slight increase. In the long term, the demand for copper is optimistic, but in the short term, the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the impact of Fed policy changes should be noted. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position range trading [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, closing at 86,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.11%. The end of the US government shutdown boosted market confidence, but the Fed's internal differences on interest rates made the market cautious [5]. 1.2 Supply Side - As of November 14, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.43%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 41.72 US dollars/ton, still at a historical low. In October, the domestic southern copper scrap processing fee was 1,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous month; the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous month. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31% [8]. 1.3 Demand Side - As of November 13, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 66.88%, a week - on - week increase of 4.91 percentage points. The decline in copper prices increased downstream purchasing sentiment, and new orders were concentratedly released, leading to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods. In October, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 64.97%, 84.22%, and 43.48% respectively. High copper prices in October suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and terminal demand was not released as expected. The overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was weak. The sales of new energy vehicles continued to be good, and the demand in the traditional peak season continued to grow at a high rate; some energy storage enterprises were still in the capacity - climbing stage, continuously releasing new production, and the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased for six consecutive months. High copper prices suppressed demand, and the operating rate of brass rods decreased under pressure [9]. 1.4 Inventory - As of November 14, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 10.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.89%. As of November 13, the domestic social copper inventory was 201,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%. The decline in copper prices increased downstream purchasing sentiment. As of November 14, the LME copper inventory was 135,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%, and the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 38,130 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.23%, and the inventory continued to increase [9]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position range trading due to macroeconomic uncertainty and fundamental factors [10]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, remaining above the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing sentiment but a slowdown in growth [14]. - China's October exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's total goods trade volume increased by 3.6% year - on - year [14]. - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in October, for the 12th consecutive month of increase [14]. - The US October ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month due to weak production and demand [14]. - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI final value was 50, indicating stagnation. The manufacturing PMIs of Germany and France remained in the contraction zone [14]. - The US officially included copper in the new critical minerals list, which may affect future tariff policies and trade restrictions [14]. 2.2 Industrial News Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration optimized the new energy allocation and consumption plan, aiming to establish a new energy consumption and regulation system by 2030 [16]. - China's new social financing in October was 81 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The social financing scale in the first 10 months of 2025 increased by 3.83 trillion yuan year - on - year [16]. - China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year in October, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down to 2.9% [16]. - The number of private sector jobs in the US decreased by 45,000 in October, the largest decline in two and a half years [16]. - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the US government restarted after a 43 - day shutdown [16]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - As copper prices declined, the spot trading of Shanghai copper improved, but then the spot price of Shanghai copper was under pressure as the price center slightly increased. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai copper stabilized near the delivery date. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a narrowing discount, and the price difference between New York and London copper weakened [20]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of November 14, the futures position of Shanghai copper was 192,293 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.17%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 90,993.80 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 30.24%. The position and trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased significantly. As of November 7, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 10,989.12 lots, a week - on - week increase of 11.43%, and the net long position continued to rise [23]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The contradiction between mining and smelting continued, and the TC remained at a low level. As of November 14, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.43%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 41.72 US dollars/ton, still at a historical low. In October, the domestic southern copper scrap processing fee was 1,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous month; the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous month. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31% [28]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of November 13, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 66.88%, a week - on - week increase of 4.91 percentage points. The decline in copper prices increased downstream purchasing sentiment, and new orders were concentratedly released, leading to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods. In October, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 64.97%, 84.22%, and 43.48% respectively. High copper prices in October suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and terminal demand was not released as expected. The overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was weak. The sales of new energy vehicles continued to be good, and the demand in the traditional peak season continued to grow at a high rate; some energy storage enterprises were still in the capacity - climbing stage, continuously releasing new production, and the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased for six consecutive months. High copper prices suppressed demand, and the operating rate of brass rods decreased under pressure [32]. 4.3 Inventory - As of November 14, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 10.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.89%. As of November 13, the domestic social copper inventory was 201,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%. The decline in copper prices increased downstream purchasing sentiment. As of November 14, the LME copper inventory was 135,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%, and the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 38,130 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.23%, and the inventory continued to increase [36]