国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)：国债期货窄幅波动-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, treasury bond futures are expected to continue their strength and remain in a favorable window period. Market expectations for further monetary policy easing in Q4, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, have boosted market sentiment. [8] - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the marginal decline in the effectiveness of land finance and debt - driven economic growth, and new growth drivers still in the cultivation stage, combined with potential trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The synergy of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, and the low - interest - rate environment is crucial for policy implementation. The logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue. [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints - Market Performance: Last week, treasury bond futures contracts of different maturities showed mixed gains and losses with limited fluctuations. [4] - Policy Impact: The Q3 monetary policy implementation report indicates a possible marginal loosening of the monetary policy tone, reducing the probability of liquidity disturbances. The central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchases on November 17, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan after offsetting maturities. [4] - Macro Data: Some financial data indicators showed a slowdown in growth, slightly lower than seasonal performance. The financing demand of the household sector remained weak, and corporate bill - padding was significant. The peak of local government bond issuance has passed, and its support for social financing has weakened marginally. [4] Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - Open Market Operations: The report presents data on the volume and price of open - market operations, including reverse repurchases and medium - term lending facilities (MLF), as well as their historical trends. [10][11][13] - Funding Costs: It shows various funding cost indicators such as deposit - based pledged repo rates, SHIBOR, and Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repo rates, along with their historical trends. [20] - Yield Spreads: The report includes information on treasury bond yield spreads, US treasury bond yield spreads, and their historical trends. [35][37][39] Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - Basis and Net Basis: It provides data on the basis and net basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, along with their historical trends. [45][53][54] - IRR and Implied Interest Rate: The report shows the implied repo rate (IRR) and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, along with their historical trends. [60][66][67]