本周沥青跟随原油震荡

Report Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt industry is "oscillation" [4] Core View - This week, asphalt fluctuated following crude oil. Supply, demand, inventory, and cost factors all influenced the asphalt market, with overall supply contracting, demand declining, inventory showing mixed trends, and cost affected by international oil price fluctuations. The asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate following crude oil [4] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Affected by season and equipment maintenance, the total domestic asphalt production plan in November was 2.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 29%, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease [4] - Demand: Affected by capital and cold air, demand declined overall. This week, the domestic shipment volume was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.7%. Terminal demand rebounded slightly, and subsequent shipments are expected to increase to about 380,000 tons [4] - Inventory: Factory inventories showed mixed trends but overall increased. Social inventories in most regions decreased, especially in Shandong [4] - Cost: International oil prices fluctuated downward this week, with Brent crude closing at $63.92 per barrel, affected by OPEC supply signals, regional events, and supply - demand expectations [4] - Investment and Trading Strategy: The investment view is "oscillation". The unilateral trading strategy is also "oscillation", and there is no arbitrage strategy. Key risks to watch include OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4] Part Two: Price - The report presents price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [9] Part Two: Spread & Basis & Delivery Profit - It shows the trends of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and asphalt basis in main regions from 2021 to 2025 [13][14][15] Part Two: Supply - Production Forecast: The report shows monthly asphalt production and production forecasts in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10 [18] - Capacity Utilization: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025. This week, the capacity utilization rate was 29% [30][34][36] - Maintenance Loss: It shows weekly and monthly asphalt maintenance loss volumes in China from 2018 to 2025 [41] Part Two: Cost & Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [44][45][48] Part Three: Inventory - Factory Inventory: It shows the factory inventory volumes and inventory rates in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [53][56] - Social Inventory: It shows the social inventory volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [59] Part Three: Demand - Shipment Volume: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [62] - Downstream Operating Rate: It shows the operating rates of road modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][68][71]