原油周报（SC）：对俄制裁进一步升级，国际油价宽幅波动-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand shows a bearish trend. However, short - term geopolitical factors drive up, so oil prices will fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA slightly raises the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026; OPEC's October production shows a small increase, while Non - OPEC DoC's production decreases; IEA also shows a decline in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC production in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA lowers the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rate; OPEC keeps the forecast unchanged; IEA slightly raises the forecast. Overall, it is neutral [3] - Inventory (Short - Term): U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increases to the highest level since June 6, 2025, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreases. Different types of refined oil inventories show different changes. It is bearish [3] - Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term): OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may intensify market supply - surplus concerns. It also agrees to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. It is bearish [3] - Geopolitics (Short - Term): Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy hubs lead to the suspension of oil exports from Novorossiysk Port, causing about 2.2 million barrels per day of supply interruption. The U.S. new sanctions on Russia bring uncertainty. It is bullish [3] - Macro - Finance (Short - Term): The U.S. adjusts the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is high. It is neutral [3] - Investment Viewpoint: Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and the long - term price center will decline [3] - Trading Strategy: Suggest to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] PART TWO: Futures Market Data - Market Review: Sanctions against Russia are further upgraded, and international oil prices fluctuate widely. This week, oil prices first fell and then rose. Geopolitical events are the direct catalyst for the rebound. As of November 14, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures show different price changes [8] - Monthly Spread & Internal - External Spread: Near - month spreads weaken, and internal - external spreads strengthen [9] - Forward Curve: Near - month spreads strengthen [22] - Cracking Spread: Gasoline and diesel cracking spreads decline, and jet fuel cracking spreads also decline [25][35] PART THREE: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production - Global crude oil production in October 2025 shows different trends according to EIA, OPEC, and IEA data, with an overall decline [57] - U.S. weekly crude oil production increases to 13.862 million barrels per day as of the week of November 7, and the number of active drilling rigs also increases slightly [80] - Inventory - U.S. commercial inventory increases by 6.413 million barrels, and Cushing inventory decreases by 346,000 barrels [81] - Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, and Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [90] - Demand - In the U.S., gasoline implied demand increases, and refinery operating rate rises [100] - In China, independent refinery capacity utilization shows different trends, with some regions affected by equipment failures and some rising [117] - Refinery Profit: In China, the gross profit of major refineries rebounds, and the gasoline and diesel cracking spreads also rebound [118] - Macro - Finance: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index fluctuates [131] - CFTC Position: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreases [134]