农产品研究跟踪系列报告（182）：肉牛价格有望持续上涨，奶牛产能或将去化加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The beef price is expected to continue rising, indicating a new upward cycle for beef prices in 2025 [2] - The pig farming industry is experiencing a reversal of internal competition, which is likely to support long-term pig prices [3] - The poultry sector is seeing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for improved consumption during peak seasons [3] - The dairy sector is anticipated to undergo accelerated capacity reduction, with potential price turning points for raw milk by year-end [2][3] - The feed industry is benefiting from deeper industrialization and clearer division of labor, enhancing competitive advantages for leading feed companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The average price of live pigs as of November 14 is 11.73 CNY/kg, down 1.5% week-on-week [1] - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.06 CNY/kg, down 0.93% week-on-week and down 24.91% year-on-year [13] - The average price of broiler chickens is 7.16 CNY/kg, up 3.02% week-on-week [13] 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The industry is progressing with a reversal of internal competition, which is expected to support profitability [8] 2.2 Poultry - The supply of white chickens is slightly increasing, with a focus on consumption recovery during peak seasons [8] 2.3 Beef - A new round of beef price increases is beginning, with optimism for a reversal in the beef cycle in 2025 [8] 2.4 Dairy - The reduction in dairy cow capacity is expected to accelerate in Q4, with potential price turning points for raw milk [8] 2.5 Feed - The feed industry is seeing a strong demand due to industrialization and technological advantages [8] 3. Market Trends - The report highlights the potential for price increases in various agricultural products, including beef, pork, and poultry, driven by supply-demand dynamics and seasonal consumption patterns [3][4]