长江期货贵金属周报：美政府结束停摆，价格延续调整-20251117

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Weekly Precious Metals Report by Changjiang Futures, dated November 17, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The end of the US government shutdown and the mitigation of liquidity shocks, along with hawkish statements from multiple Fed officials, have led to a strong - oscillating trend in precious metal prices. The market is divided on whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end - point of this round of rate cuts has been lowered. Amid concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are currently in a short - term adjustment phase [6][9][11] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review - US government shutdown ended and liquidity shock eased. Fed officials made hawkish statements. The price of US gold was in a strong - oscillating state, closing at $4084 per ounce last Friday, up 1.9% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4150, and the lower support level is $3980. The price of US silver also showed a strong - oscillating trend, with a weekly increase of 4.5%, closing at $50.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $49, and the upper resistance level is $51.5 [6][9] 4.2 Weekly Viewpoint - The end of the US government shutdown and hawkish Fed statements have reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut. The market is divided on the December rate cut, and the expected end - point of rate cuts has been lowered. With a slowdown in the US employment situation and concerns about the US economy and Fed independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are in short - term adjustment. Strategy advice is to trade cautiously within a range, with the reference operating range for SHFE gold contract 12 being 910 - 970 and for SHFE silver contract 12 being 11500 - 12400 [11][13] 4.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of various overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate, inflation expectation, US Treasury yield spread, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures price [15][17][21] 4.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the eurozone in November was 25, compared with the previous value of 22.7 [28] 4.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The US House of Representatives passed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. There are internal disagreements within the Fed on interest rate cuts, and it is uncertain whether there will be a rate cut in December [29] 4.6 Inventory - This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10,789.81 kg to 1,162,728.30 kg, while SHFE gold inventory increased by 810 kg to 90,426 kg. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138,277.37 kg to 14,795,008.84 kg, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 46,158 kg to 576,894 kg [13][33] 4.7 Fund Holdings - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13][38] 4.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday, November 20th, at 21:30, important economic indicators to watch include the seasonally - adjusted change in US non - farm payrolls for September and the US unemployment rate for September [40]