所长早读-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market is in a slow - bull trend. Although the US technology stocks are adjusting, it is not a reversal. In China, the economic data in October weakened, but the policy expectation will turn positive before the Politburo meeting in December, and the slow - bull trend of the market will continue [8][9]. - For copper, short - term price increases are limited, but in the long term, it is advisable to buy on dips. The weakening of raw material supply tension, the increase in recycled copper supply, and the high domestic refined copper production are the current situations. However, long - term consumption has strong growth logic [10]. - In the pig market, the de - stocking drive is emerging, and the reverse - spread strategy has entered the right - hand side. The demand increment from slaughter pre - stocking is lower than expected, and there may be a social - end sell - off in the second half of the month, leading to a potential acceleration of the decline in spot prices [12]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the shipment volume at the mine end is increasing, and there is a risk of a month - on - month weakening in demand, with limited upside potential. The demand in the energy storage sector remains strong, but there is a slight month - on - month decline, and the power demand will enter a seasonal off - season [14][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high on Friday last week but declined in the late session. The adjustment of US technology stocks during the earnings season has dragged down the AI sector, and the market style has shifted to value sectors such as banks and consumption [8]. - Although the capital expenditure of US technology giants is large, it is still far from the level of the 2000 dot - com bubble. Some technology giants' earnings have exceeded expectations, and the overseas adjustment is not a reversal [9]. - In China, the economic data in October continued to weaken. Before the Politburo meeting in December, the market's policy expectations will turn positive, and the slow - bull trend of the market will continue [9]. 3.2 Copper - Macroscopically, the US government shutdown has ended, but the hawkish statements of Fed officials have weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts. In the long run, preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed may lead to a decline in the US dollar and support prices [10]. - Fundamentally, the logic of raw material supply tension is continuously weakening, the supply of recycled copper has increased marginally, and the processing fee for crude copper has started to rise. Domestic refined copper production remains high [10]. - The current demand has weakened, but the long - term logic is still strong. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand and terminal consumption, but domestic active fiscal policies and the long - term demand from AI data centers and power grid upgrades will drive copper consumption [10]. 3.3 Pig - Since November, the market has been trading on the expectation of increased demand due to the temperature drop in the second half of the month, but the demand increment from slaughter pre - stocking is lower than expected, and the time for concentrated bacon - curing to boost demand is around the Winter Solstice [12]. - From the supply side, the group sales in the middle of the month have been poor for many consecutive days, the slaughter progress is slow, and a passive pressure - bar situation has formed. The weight of the存栏 has increased significantly due to the large - scale entry of secondary fattening in October [12]. - Although farmers have a sentiment of reluctant to sell, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has shown a reverse - seasonal weakening trend, and the loss from pressure - bar has increased. There may be a social - end sell - off in the second half of the month, and the spot price may accelerate its decline [12]. 3.4 Lithium Carbonate - On the demand side, the energy storage demand remains strong, but the winning bid data from October to November shows a slight month - on - month decline. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in October has slowed down, and December will enter a traditional seasonal off - season [14]. - On the supply side, since October 27, the shipment volume of Australian mines has been above the annual average for three consecutive weeks. Australian mining companies have increased supply by improving recycling efficiency, and this incremental supply is expected to be gradually released by the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year [15]. - In the short term, the de - stocking trend will continue, but with the increase in supply and the entry of power demand into the seasonal off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [15].