甲醇日评20251117：库存压力仍存，沿海现货偏弱-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is low - level volatility with limited upward drivers, and the current valuation is relatively low. It is not recommended to short further from a valuation perspective. The upward drive is limited due to higher - than - expected Iranian winter gas supply leading to potentially high imports and high MTO enterprise raw material methanol inventories. The recommended trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (MA01, MA05, MA09) all declined on November 14, 2025 compared to November 13, with declines of - 2.28%, - 2.04%, and - 1.30% respectively. [1] - Methanol spot prices in some regions (Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong) decreased, while those in other regions (Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, Inner Mongolia) remained unchanged. [1] - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 25.50 yuan/ton. [1] Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices: The price of Datong Q5500 decreased by - 1.43%, while the prices of Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged. [1] Profit Situation - Coal - to - methanol and natural - gas - to - methanol profits remained unchanged. [1] - The profits of Northwest MTO and East China MTO increased by 109.22% and 24.15% respectively. [1] - The profit of acetic acid increased by 5.85%, while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether remained unchanged. [1] Information - Domestic: Methanol's main contract MA2601 weakened, closing at 2055 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1,169,485 lots and open interest of 1,516,796 lots. [1] - Overseas: In a Middle - Eastern country, 11 methanol plants maintained their existing loads, with an overall average operating load of 75.82%. [1]