Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Overall Market Outlook: The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs, providing different views and investment suggestions for each variety [1]. - Soybean Meal: The market sentiment is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, caution is needed when chasing long positions. There is a risk of short - term adjustment following the decline of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1][2][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: The market sentiment is bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][4][6]. - Palm Oil: It is in a weak consolidation state. There is a continued inventory build - up expectation, and short - term staged adjustment is expected. Caution is needed when chasing long positions, and participation is recommended when the price stabilizes at a low level [1][7][8]. - Soybean Oil: It is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term. Although there is no strong bullish driver, it is treated as a rebound for now. Attention should be paid to the weather in Brazil [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: It is expected to be bullish in the short term. The zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero - inventory of rapeseed, and significant reduction in port inventories have driven up the domestic rapeseed oil price [1]. - Cotton: It is expected to adjust in the short term. The high supply suppresses the market in the short term, but the terminal inventory is being depleted, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to gradually converge in the long - term. Mid - to long - term investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips, and short - term investors can consider range trading or short - term reverse arbitrage [1][9][12]. - Red Dates: A bearish attitude is recommended in the long - term under the loose supply - demand pattern. Most of the premium caused by the speculation of a significant reduction in production has been squeezed out, and short - term observation is recommended [1][13][16]. - Live Pigs: There is a risk of a rebound. Supply pressure remains in Q4, and attention should be paid to the entry of second - fattening pigs. The terminal demand is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 03 contract and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][17][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Price Information: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 3092 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3124 yuan/ton, up 17.43 yuan or 0.56% [2]. - Inventory Situation: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 1033.4 million tons, up 70.50 million tons from last week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 761.95 million tons, up 51.16 million tons or 7.20% from last week, and the soybean meal inventory is 99.86 million tons, down 15.44 million tons or 13.39% from last week [3]. - Market Analysis: The rainfall in Brazil is expected to be slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days. The sales pressure of spot oil mills has decreased, and there is a psychological tendency to support prices. The issue of US soybean import tariffs has not been effectively resolved, and the market sentiment is bullish, but there is a risk of short - term adjustment following the decline of US soybeans [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Information: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2490 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2588.95 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Inventory Situation: As of November 7, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.21 million tons from last week [6]. - Market Analysis: The market's expectation of improving China - Canada trade tariffs has cooled. Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory and zero - crushing. However, due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][6]. Palm Oil - Price Information: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 8644 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan or 1.23% from the previous day. The national average price is 8655 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.80% [7]. - Inventory Situation: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory is 59.73 million tons, up 0.45 million tons or 0.76% from last week, and up 5.85 million tons or 10.86% from last year [8]. - Market Analysis: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. There was inventory build - up in October, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of November was weak. There is still an expectation of inventory build - up, and it is in a short - term staged adjustment [1][8]. Cotton - Price Information: The latest price of the main contract (CF2601) is 13450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day [9]. - Inventory Situation: The national commercial inventory has increased by 52.17 million tons to 284.78 million tons, lower than the same period by 27.88 million tons; the Xinjiang commercial inventory has increased to 183.9 million tons, higher than the same period by 26.96 million tons [11]. - Market Analysis: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 1.4 million tons; in Pakistan, the new cotton listing volume has increased by 3% year - on - year. In China, the new cotton picking is basically completed, and the supply is high in the short term, but the terminal inventory is being depleted, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to converge in the long - term [1][10][12]. Red Dates - Price Information: The latest price of the main contract (CJ2601) is 9190 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [13]. - Inventory Situation: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9840 tons, up 299 tons from last week and up 4140 tons from the same period [15]. - Market Analysis: The new - season red date production is expected to be between 500,000 and 600,000 tons, and the supply is loose. The mainstream purchase price in Xinjiang is weak, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly [1][15][16]. Live Pigs - Price Information: The latest price of the main contract (lh2601) is 11775 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The national average spot price of external ternary pigs is 11940 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.33% [17]. - Inventory and Supply - Demand Situation: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory has increased slightly, and the slaughter volume has increased by 11.85% month - on - month. The terminal demand is gradually stabilizing, but the supply pressure remains in Q4 [17][19]. - Market Analysis: The supply pressure is postponed to December, and there is a risk of a rebound. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 03 contract and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][17][19].
中辉农产品观点-20251117
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-17 06:19