中欧班列的崛起对海运的替代性扰动

Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry for the European route is rated as "bearish" in 2025 [6] Core Viewpoints - The continuous development of the China-Europe Railway Express is changing the traditional China-Europe logistics pattern, evolving from a supplementary role to a competitive force against the shipping system, especially on European routes [10] - The substitution effect of the China-Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen, and the "asymmetric substitution" relationship between the two needs close attention, which may significantly impact European route cargo volume [5][48][49] Summary by Directory 1. Network Development Promotes Comprehensive Competitiveness Improvement - In 2024, the westbound channel's annual departures exceeded 11,000 trains, with container transport volume reaching 1.14 million TEUs, up 12.9% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively, higher than the global shipping trade's 2.3% annual growth rate. As of 2024, the freight volume of the China-Europe Railway Express accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia-Europe shipping trade volume [11] - The "Three Channels and Five Ports" network layout provides systematic advantages. The westbound channel undertakes over 70% of the transport tasks, the middle channel plays a diversion role in winter, and the eastbound channel connects Northeast China with European Russia and Nordic countries. The newly opened west 2 channel saw explosive growth in 2024 [15] - The five ports have evolved into comprehensive hubs, and the "one-time inspection, full-line clearance" mode improves cross-border transport efficiency. The domestic and overseas networks cover many cities, shortening the delivery time to European inland areas by 7 - 10 days compared to shipping [18][23] 2. Differentiated Substitution Effect Driven by Price Factors - There is an asymmetric substitution relationship between the China-Europe Railway Express and shipping. When shipping prices rise sharply, high-value goods requiring high transport timeliness and supply chain stability will shift to the railway, as seen during the 2020 - 2021 pandemic and the 2024 Red Sea crisis [24] - The asymmetric nature lies in that the impact of rising shipping prices on the demand for the railway express is much greater than the impact of railway price adjustments on the return of shipping demand. This is due to the different core demands and cost - accounting logics of the two customer groups [29][31] 3. Multi - Dimensional Market Penetration and Structural Characteristics - In terms of cargo value, high - value products prefer the China-Europe Railway Express due to their high requirements for transport timeliness and reliability, while low - value commodities mainly use shipping. The proportion of high - value goods transported by railway in EU imports from China is about 5%, compared to 3% for low - value goods [32] - Geographically, the time - saving advantage of the railway express is more prominent for inland countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The difference in implicit costs between regions further strengthens the sensitivity of high - value goods to shipping price fluctuations [33][39] 4. Continuous Evolution of Structural Adjustment and Development Trends - The proportion of low - value goods in the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo structure is rising, while that of high - value goods is slightly falling, and the gap between them is narrowing. Geopolitical risks and falling shipping prices have slowed the shift of high - value goods to the railway [42] - The growth of low - value goods' railway transport demand is driven by policy subsidies, the "rail - sea - rail" multimodal transport mode of the west 2 channel, and the optimization of the railway express's operation mode [44] 5. Summary and Outlook - In 2024, the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo volume accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia - Europe trade volume, indicating it has become an important force affecting the China - Europe logistics pattern. Its relationship with shipping is shifting from simple complementarity to a "complementary - competitive" dynamic balance [48] - The substitution effect of the China - Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen. The railway express's internal structural adjustment will continue, and the market shares of high - and low - value goods will become more balanced [48] - When European route shipping prices rise by over 50%, 3 - 5% of the cargo is expected to shift to the railway, with high - value goods' transfer ratio possibly reaching 8 - 10%. The China - Europe Railway Express's penetration in the Mediterranean coastal European inland areas will increase, and its unit transport cost is expected to decrease by 10 - 15% in the next three years [49]