铜周报：基本面支撑助力，铜价高位震荡-20251117

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level due to the internal divergence between hawkish and dovish factions within the Fed, the lack of key economic data during the government shutdown, and the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut. Fundamentally, the global concentrate supply pattern remains tight, domestic refined copper production has declined, and social inventories are around 200,000 tons, with the recent - month C - structure of the market expanding [2][8]. - Although the US government is close to resuming operations, the potential lack of October employment data may hinder the Fed's continuation of a loose policy path. Coupled with limited support from hawkish officials for a December interest rate cut, market risk appetite is dampened. LME copper may face short - term high - level adjustment pressure. Fundamentally, overseas concentrates remain in short supply, domestic refined copper production is falling, social inventory rebound is limited, and the old and new consumption drivers are in the process of switching. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the previous high of $11,000 [3][11]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From November 7th to November 14th, LME copper rose from $10,695/ton to $10,846/ton, a 1.41% increase; COMEX copper rose from 495.8 cents/pound to 505 cents/pound, a 1.86% increase; SHFE copper rose from 85,940 yuan/ton to 86,900 yuan/ton, a 1.12% increase; international copper rose from 76,500 yuan/ton to 77,360 yuan/ton, a 1.12% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.04 to 8.01, the LME spot premium changed from - $18.22/ton to $3.88/ton, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from 40 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. - As of November 14th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 733,110 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 175 tons (- 0.13%), COMEX inventory increased by 11,927 short tons (3.23%), SHFE inventory decreased by 5,628 tons (- 4.89%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 6,500 tons (6.49%) [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The internal divergence between hawkish and dovish factions in the Fed is prominent. The lack of key economic data during the government shutdown makes it difficult for the Fed to formulate policies, and a December interest rate cut is still uncertain, which drags down market risk appetite. The US labor market is weak and needs continuous interest rate cuts. In China, the industrial added - value in October showed growth, and the output of products such as industrial robots, service robots, and new energy vehicles increased significantly [9]. - Supply - demand aspect: The global copper concentrate supply shortage pattern continues. Indonesia's Grasberg is in the slow resumption stage, and Panama's copper mine restart is not earlier than the second quarter of next year. Domestic refined copper production is falling due to raw material shortages. In terms of demand, traditional industries such as power grids, white - goods, and real estate show weak demand, while emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and data centers have explosive copper demand. The spot market has turned to a premium, domestic inventory is around 200,000 tons, and the C - structure of the near - month spread has expanded [10]. Industry News - Indonesia's Freeport's Grasberg copper - gold mine accident investigation is over, and it has received government rectification suggestions. It is expected to gradually resume production and increase capacity in 2026 [12]. - Citi predicts that copper prices will rise to an average of $12,000/ton in the second quarter of 2026, and may reach $14,000/ton in an optimistic scenario. It believes that copper demand will recover in 2026 [13]. - As of the end of September this year, the open - pit stripping project of Zhongkuang Resources' Katomba copper mine has completed 80% of the annual plan, and the project team is striving to complete the annual goal [14].