招商期货大类资产配置周报（2025年11月10日-2025年11月14日）：10月国内货币信贷增速有所放缓-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report Market Logic - Overseas: The US government ended over 40 days of shutdown this week, but the release of key economic data is still delayed. September non - farm payrolls and Q3 GDP data are expected to be announced in the next two weeks. October employment and inflation data may be distorted, hindering the Fed's policy guidance. The market believes there is a higher probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in December. The end of the shutdown could theoretically boost market risk appetite as fiscal policy can continue to play a role. The TGA account has increased by thousands of billions during the shutdown, exceeding one trillion dollars, and its release is expected to boost the US economy [6]. - Domestic: In October, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both declined. M1 growth dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%, and M2 growth slightly fell to 8.2%. The gap between them widened again, indicating a decrease in capital activation. New social financing was 815 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.5% (previous value 8.7%). Government bond net financing was 489.3 billion yuan, a significant year - on - year decrease. Credit contraction, especially the weakness of long - term household loans, was the main drag, related to real estate spending. M1 growth decline was affected by weak overall social financing, slower corporate capital activation, and the transfer of household deposits to non - bank institutions. M2 growth was pressured by the slowdown of fiscal expenditure and government bond issuance. The current low - interest - rate environment may promote the conversion of deposit structure to demand deposits, supporting M1, while the future trend of M2 still depends on credit issuance rhythm and the implementation of loose policies such as policy - based financial tools [7]. - In October, the industrial added - value growth rate slowed from 6.5% to 4.9%, and the service production index dropped to 4.6%, the lowest point of the year, indicating weakened production momentum. This decline was dragged down by both external and internal demand. Externally, export growth slowed; internally, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, lower than market expectations, and weak investment and consumption were mutually confirmed, highlighting insufficient effective demand. Industry performance was significantly differentiated. Traditional industries were affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with significantly reduced operating rates, while high - tech manufacturing industries such as railway and ship transportation equipment and integrated circuits maintained high - speed growth [8]. - From a meso - perspective, this week's high - frequency economic activity index was active, at a high level in recent years. In building materials, the demand for PVC and glass improved. The operating rate of copper rods rebounded from a low level. The operating rate of photovoltaic glass has been declining rapidly since the "anti - involution" policy was proposed, but it gradually stabilized in late October, stopping the previous rapid decline [8]. - Under the influence of multiple factors such as the Fed's hawkish signals, global stock markets fluctuated significantly this week, driving the adjustment of multiple assets such as precious metals and digital currencies. As long as global fiscal and monetary policies remain loose, the technology theme still has investment value, and cyclical investments in resource - based sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals are also timely. Precious metals should be used as a hedging tool to prevent tail risks [8]. Logic of Major Asset Classes | Major Asset Class | Logic | Allocation Suggestion | | --- | --- | --- | | Stocks | Medium - to - long - term logic: Global fiscal and monetary policies work together; domestic PPI and industrial enterprise profits have bottomed out, and "anti - involution" promotes recovery; capital flows, with deposit and wealth - management funds transferring, and foreign capital waiting to enter due to RMB appreciation; stable global demand and improved Sino - US relations lay the foundation for increased risk appetite. Short - term logic: Changes in Sino - Dutch and Sino - Japanese relations affect market risk appetite; valuations have reached extremely high levels in the past three years, and further increases require improved profit expectations; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has decreased. | Long - term overweight, neutral allocation in November, with structural opportunities [9] | | Bonds | Medium - to - long - term logic: Limited room for domestic interest - rate cuts; the "unified large market" (including "anti - involution") promotes inflation and economic improvement; the stock - bond seesaw effect. Short - term logic: Bond yields have risen significantly compared to mid - year; the central bank has restarted treasury bond trading; the economic momentum in Q4 lacks explosive power. | Long - term underweight, neutral allocation in November [9] | | Commodities | Medium - to - long - term logic: Fiscal and monetary policies boost the economy, and PPI will turn positive next year; the Fed cuts interest rates, and the US dollar weakens; short - duration attributes with lower elasticity than stocks. Short - term logic: Weak demand; weak policy expectations in Q4. | Long - term overweight precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Precious metals will fluctuate from November to December, non - ferrous metals will be relatively strong, and there are trading opportunities in "anti - involution" related varieties [9] | Sector Logic - Precious metals: Still worth long - term allocation from a major asset allocation perspective to hedge against currency credit risks. Silver generally follows gold with more elastic upward pulses. This week, silver rose significantly, and precious metals as a whole soared and then回调ed significantly on Friday night, mainly due to the impact of global risk - asset fluctuations on liquidity. Long - term allocation can continue despite the lack of short - term drivers [14]. - Base metals: Metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin face supply disruptions, with a tight medium - to - long - term supply situation, and there are more technology - related narratives (AI, robots, etc.) on the demand side, so they are still regarded as bullish. Basic metals are breaking through and rising. New - energy metals such as lithium carbonate have rebounded significantly recently due to the "anti - involution" policy, and polysilicon and industrial silicon are also subject to supply - side regulation, and their subsequent market trends are expected to continue [15]. - Black commodities: The current situation is influenced by the "anti - involution" policy and the arrival of the peak season, remaining relatively warm. The NDRC requires coal supply guarantee, changing the logic of production cuts due to safety inspections, so coal prices are weak, but it can still be bought on dips based on the peak - season and "anti - involution" logic [15]. - Energy and chemicals: Pay attention to the impact of raw materials on the overall valuation of the sector. Recently, crude oil prices have strengthened due to the situation in Venezuela. Without the expansion of the conflict, there is no condition for continuous upward movement, but also no continuous downward momentum under the background that OPEC+ is about to stop increasing supply, so it is expected to fluctuate with short - term strength. For downstream chemical products, after the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of long - term profit expansion, but no short - term drivers [15]. - Agricultural products: In the oil sector, the differentiation continues, with P showing a reverse spread and rapeseed - soybean showing a positive spread, with a medium - term oscillatory trend and both supply and demand increasing. Protein meal is oscillating strongly in the short term with relatively low valuation, and its medium - term trend depends on South American production, with a weak expectation. Corn is under pressure from autumn harvest and oscillating weakly. The supply - demand pressure of live pigs has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range; the demand for eggs has declined, and the futures price is expected to oscillate downward. In the short term, the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere has become a reality for sugar, and it is still searching for a bottom; in the long - term, the global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle and is regarded as bearish. For cotton, the latest USDA data in October has a negative impact on global cotton prices, and domestic commercial cotton inventories are higher than last year, so it is oscillating weakly in the short term; in the long - term, domestic cotton prices are at a relatively low level with no effective drivers, and macro - level disturbances should be monitored [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Core Views - Overseas and domestic economic situations, production and demand conditions, and major asset and sector investment logics are comprehensively analyzed, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided [6][7][8][9][14][15][16]. 02 Quantitative Analysis - The weights of major asset sub - sectors in the current and previous periods are presented. The recent one - week, one - month, year - to - date, and three - month returns, valuations, volatilities, trend smoothness, and speculation degrees of stocks, bonds, and commodities are also given. It is also mentioned that the correlation between major asset classes has increased recently, while the correlation within the commodity sector has decreased [19][20][21][22]. 03 Macro Overview - Domestically, in October, the unemployment rate of non - local household registration decreased significantly, the manufacturing PMI declined significantly, the M1 growth rate decreased, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened again. Both CPI and PPI rebounded. Overseas, the US PMI in October increased moderately [26][30][32][33][35]. 04 Meso Data - Based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years, scores are given according to the degree of change. Economic activity indicators have returned to normal levels. In the real - estate sector, multiple indicators are at the bottom, while the demand for glass and PVC has increased [41][42][45].