甲醇数据日报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the core logic of methanol revolves around supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure. On the supply side, although domestic production has slightly decreased, the significant increase in imports has significantly boosted the total supply, and the expected resumption of subsequent installations will further increase the supply pressure. In the inventory segment, the port shows an obvious trend of inventory accumulation, and although there are differences in the inland area, overall de - stocking is difficult. High - level inventory continuously suppresses market sentiment. On the demand side, only the profits of some downstream sectors have slightly recovered, the weak pattern of the terminal has not been fundamentally improved, and the model of mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis can hardly provide strong support for the market. The firm coal price at the cost side provides some support, but the overall industry profit has deteriorated, especially the losses of some processes have intensified, and the cost support is limited. In the short term, the market lacks clear positive drivers. It is recommended to wait and see, focus on subsequent import arrivals and changes in downstream restocking willingness, and avoid blindly gambling on price rebounds [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Spot Market - Regional Prices: The current spot prices are 2047 in Inner Mongolia North Line, 1620 in Shaanxi Guanzhong, 1980 in Xinjiang (outside the region), 1945 in Shandong Linyi, 2160 in Taicang, and 2055 in Henan. Compared with the previous values, the prices in Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Xinjiang (outside the region), Taicang, and Henan have decreased by 25, 0, 25, 20, and 5 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi remains unchanged [1]. - Taicang Transaction Price Range: The transaction price ranges in Taicang from November to December are as follows: 2045 - 2055 in early November, 2035 - 2065 in mid - November, 2045 - 2075 in late November, 2075 - 2105 in late December [3]. Futures Market - Contract Prices: The current prices of MA2601 and MA2605 are 2055 and 2163 respectively, with a decline of 2.28% and 2.08% compared with the previous values [1].