Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It points out that most commodities are in a state of price fluctuation and supply - demand adjustment, with many facing uncertain factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal demand variations. Commodity Summaries Energy - Crude Oil: International oil prices fluctuated last week. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported prices, but the Russian port's resumption of loading reduced the impact. There is a risk of price decline in the medium - term due to increasing supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year. Attention should be paid to the impact of Russian oil sanctions and the release of Venezuelan risks [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The absolute price of fuel oil is still suppressed by the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by short - term export decline but may face a more relaxed supply pattern in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved due to factors such as unstable overseas refinery operations and strong demand in the fourth - quarter shipping season [20]. - Asphalt: The poor shipment volume has falsified the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - of - year rush - work demand expectation, and the demand is weaker than last year. The inventory de - stocking is slowing down, and the fundamentals are bearish in the long - term [21]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Import supply is tight. The improvement of butane dehydrogenation device profitability and cold weather have increased demand, leading to a decline in refinery and port storage rates. LPG is expected to be in a slightly strong upward trend [22]. Metals - Precious Metals: International gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Friday. After the end of the US government shutdown, the market is waiting for economic data. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation platform, waiting for new drivers [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: Copper prices first declined and then rose on the night of last Friday. The market trading theme is unclear, waiting for US economic indicators and domestic demand. Short - term high - position short orders can be traded near 88,000 yuan, and copper prices are in a state of oscillation [4]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum prices dropped on Friday. The long - term supply - demand situation has potential, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The oscillation - upward trend has not been broken, and attention should be paid to capital movements [5]. - Zinc: Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the equity market and a large - scale exit of long - position funds in the non - ferrous sector. LME zinc inventory is rising slightly, and domestic refinery profits are under pressure. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Lead: High lead prices have weakened downstream procurement, and refineries are resuming production. Although there are short - term factors to stimulate consumption, the support for high prices is insufficient. Considering cost support, Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Tin: The amplitude of Shanghai tin increased on the night of last Friday. The inventory of tin has increased. The market is waiting for the inventory data. Long - term high - position short orders can be held near 295,000 yuan [10]. - Manganese Silicon: The tender price of a large northern steel mill is stable. Iron - water production has rebounded, and the output of manganese silicon has slightly decreased. The price has strong bottom support [17]. - Silicon Iron: The tender price of a large northern steel mill has increased slightly. Demand has resilience, and supply is at a high level. Due to the increase in cost, the price is expected to be more likely to rise [18]. - Other Metals - Related Products - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan on Friday. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is unclear. It continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. - Alumina: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. The price is mainly in a weak operation with limited rebound space [7]. Chemicals - Polysilicon: Photovoltaic terminal demand is weak. Both upstream and downstream reduced production in November, and the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited. The price will continue to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply in the southwest is significantly reduced during the dry season, but the expected production reduction of organic silicon monomer enterprises may drag down demand. The price is under pressure at a high level and will continue to oscillate [12]. - Benzene and Its Derivatives - Pure Benzene: The overseas gasoline market is strong, and the price has rebounded, but the downstream profit is weak, and the sustainability of overseas demand is uncertain [25]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, with only a small expected increase in domestic supply and a weakened import increase expectation. The demand is stable [26]. - Polyolefins - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: The supply of propylene is loose, and the demand is supported to some extent. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure of polypropylene is slightly increasing, and the market price is difficult to rise continuously [27]. - PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has little impact. The cost has some support, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The supply is high, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to oscillate narrowly [28]. - Caustic Soda: The upstream cost has increased, and the price has weakened. The inventory pressure is still large, and the demand is insufficient, so it is in a weak operation [28]. - PX and PTA: Affected by the tight overseas aromatics market, the prices of PX and PTA have rebounded. There is still an expectation of industry production reduction, and the overseas demand sustainability needs to be observed [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The weekly output has slightly increased, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term, so a short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. The demand for bottle - chip has decreased with the cooling weather, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Related Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: The USDA report has a limited impact on the market. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in South America is slow, and attention should be paid to the impact of La Niña. The domestic soybean meal will follow the short - term decline of US soybeans [35]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: The USDA report has led to a decline in US soybean prices. The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has changed, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand of palm oil [36]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The USDA report is bearish for domestic rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased, and attention should be paid to the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the production and export of Canadian rapeseed [37]. - Domestic Soybeans: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the difference with imported soybeans has widened. Attention should be paid to the performance of the domestic soybean spot market [38]. - Corn: The USDA report is slightly bearish. Domestic corn imports are expected to continue, and the new - grain supply peak in the Northeast has not passed. The futures price is expected to decline [39]. - Livestock and Poultry Products - Pigs: The futures price of pigs shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The spot price has slightly decreased. In the long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing next year [40]. - Eggs: The futures price has dropped rapidly. The trading logic has switched to the high - supply and low - demand situation, and short positions can be held [41]. - Cotton: The USDA report is bearish for US cotton. The domestic cotton purchase is almost over, and the new - cotton listing brings pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [42]. - Sugar: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi is relatively good [43]. - Apples: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the long - term [44]. - Wood: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Paper Pulp: The price has risen continuously, and the inventory has increased. The valuation is low, and there is an expectation of improvement in the long - term. The short - term upward space may be limited, and long positions should be held carefully [46]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and the 02 - contract is expected to reflect the pre - Spring Festival freight peak. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month fixed - cargo situation and supply - side changes [19]. - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index has fluctuated, and the futures index has declined. The economic data has slowed down, and the overseas situation has increased market uncertainty. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors are still the mid - term focus, and attention should be paid to the style rotation of consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - Treasury Bonds: The futures price of treasury bonds is in a narrow - range oscillation. The market's reaction to economic data is flat. The structural differentiation continues, and changes in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48].
综合晨报-20251117
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-17 06:41