第46周成交回升，不确定环境下政策以稳为主

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the real estate market, with expectations of a weak rebound in transactions amid high inventory clearance cycles and uncertain policy conditions as the year-end approaches [1][10]. Core Insights - Last week, major cities experienced a rebound in new home transactions, with a total of 1.58 million square meters sold, reflecting a 0.72% increase week-on-week but a 30.5% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 3.8% increase week-on-week, while second-tier cities experienced a 3.79% decline [11]. - The cumulative transaction area from November 1-13, 2025, reached 2.68 million square meters, up 42.8% from October 2025 but down 38% year-on-year. First-tier cities contributed 750,000 square meters, marking a 43% increase from October 2025 but a 43% decrease year-on-year [11]. - Second-hand home transactions in 24 cities also showed a rebound, totaling 2.12 million square meters, up 2.82% week-on-week but down 20% year-on-year. Cumulative transactions from November 1-13 reached 4.06 million square meters, up 106.3% from October 2025 but down 22.4% year-on-year [12]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the 46th week of 2025, new home transactions in 30 major cities reached 1.58 million square meters, with first-tier cities selling 440,000 square meters, second-tier cities 810,000 square meters, and third-tier cities 340,000 square meters [11]. - The year-on-year comparisons show significant declines, with first-tier cities down 42%, second-tier cities down 24%, and third-tier cities down 25.6% [11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - The report highlights a total of 2.12 million square meters sold in second-hand homes across 24 cities, with first-tier cities at 849,800 square meters, second-tier cities at 851,000 square meters, and third-tier cities at 421,500 square meters [12]. - Year-on-year declines are noted, with first-tier cities down 19.5%, second-tier cities down 26.9%, and third-tier cities down 2.56% [12]. Land Transactions - The report indicates a slowdown in land transaction growth, with 6.31 million square meters sold and a supply-to-sales ratio of 5.66. The cumulative land supply in 100 cities was 712.69 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year [11][12]. - The cumulative land transfer amount reached RMB 1.848 trillion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.21% year-on-year [12]. Inventory Clearance Cycles - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities was reported at 23.13 months, an increase of 2.5% from the previous month and 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a continued rise in inventory levels [13].