国贸期货黑色金属周报-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with potential for production reduction in the future. The coal - coke market has experienced marginal weakening in supply - demand, and coal prices may face downward pressure in November but with limited decline. The iron ore market has a weak fundamental situation, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [6][39][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Supply: This week, the molten iron output stopped falling and rose slightly to 236.88wt (+2.66). The daily consumption of scrap steel remained stable, slightly lower than the same period last year. In the future, the overall production level tends to be reduced, and the molten iron output may gradually decline in the fourth quarter, with a possible slow slope. Some steel mills have production reduction plans in December [6]. - Demand: Seasonal steel demand is gradually slowing down on a weekly basis, and the steel demand data has started to weaken. This year's demand shows characteristics of rigid demand support, occasional speculative demand impulses, overall light demand, and rigid external demand. There is buying support when prices fall, but there is no driving force for price increases [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products is being depleted, but the absolute inventory level is higher than the seasonal average. The overall supply - demand of the five major steel products is weak on a weekly basis. The inventory depletion is slow, which puts pressure on production reduction [6]. - Basis/Spread: This week, the basis of both hot - rolled and rebar decreased. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 97, a weekly decrease of 9; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) was 4, a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - Profit: The immediate profit of the long - process is meager, and most electric furnaces are in the red. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen below 39%, and the weekly decline has slowed down [6]. - Valuation: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar. The production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [6]. - Macro and Risk Appetite: The next macro - observation period is after early December. In the short term, the macro - expectation may be in a vacuum [6]. - Investment View: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Observe and track industrial contradictions. In the future, the decline in steel production is the main industrial logic. Wait for the implementation of the production reduction logic [6]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Spot - futures: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of hot - rolled coil spot - futures [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: Steel demand continues to decline seasonally. This week, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 860.60 (-6.33), and the output was 834.38 (-22.36). The molten iron output has rebounded temporarily, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still falling, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline [39]. - Coking Coal Supply: Domestic coal mine production has recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, and the quotation of trading enterprises has been lowered. The quotation of overseas coal has回调 [39]. - Coke Supply: Coke supply has decreased. This week, the daily average coke output was 109.2 (-0.5), and the coking profit was - 34 (-12). After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented on Friday, the coking profit has been repaired [39]. - Inventory: The inventory of coal mines continues to decline, but the decline has narrowed. The coke inventory is relatively healthy, and the whole - link inventory is being depleted [39]. - Basis/Spread: After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost was over 1750, and the port trade quotation has fallen in advance. The near - month contracts are at a certain discount [39]. - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.96% (-0.87%), and the coking profit is - 34 (-12) [39]. - Summary: This week, there have been more macro - disturbances, and the black - metal sector has fluctuated downward. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke has weakened marginally. Coal prices may face downward pressure in November, but the decline is limited. If the supply remains low, the market may start the next round of replenishment around mid - December [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Focus on short - term trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Arbitrage: Consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [39]. 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: The current shipping data has rebounded by 51.6 tons per day to 465 tons per day, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume in China has declined. The arrival volume has reached its peak and started to decline [94]. - Demand: The molten iron output of steel mills has rebounded to 236.88 tons (+2.66), but the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to decline. The apparent demand of steel products has continued to decline. The inventory pressure is not large in the short term, but the apparent demand will remain at a low level under the influence of seasonal factors [94]. - Inventory: The port inventory of 47 ports has increased by 188.71 tons this period. In the future, with stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [94]. - Profit: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to affect the molten iron output [94]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is neutral [94]. - Summary: Fundamentally, the short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipping has little impact. The inventory will continue to accumulate. The rebound of molten iron output is mainly due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills. The inventory pressure limits the upward space of prices [94]. - Investment View: Neutral [94]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Wait and see for now [94].