蛋白数据日报-20251117

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The November USDA supply and demand report was less bullish than expected, and the market is expected to correct. The domestic soybean purchase margin is poor, and the domestic market is expected to follow the trend of the US market in the short term. Future attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans and the trend of new - crop basis [10]. - In November, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8][10]. - The US - soybean supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the next USDA supply - demand report [8]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The shipping progress for the December - January period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [10]. - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On November 14, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang decreased by 11. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc. showed different degrees of decline. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong increased by 19, and the M1 - 5 basis increased by 25 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 602, with an increase of 23 [7]. International and Inventory Data - As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% last week and 53.3% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 54.7% [9]. - The USDA currently estimates the US - soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%, with the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre potentially having downward adjustment space and the export expectation having upward adjustment space [8]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8][10]. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The US - soybean supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be tight. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The shipping progress for the December - January period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [8][10]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream transactions of soybean meal in the near term are relatively cautious, and the提货 performance has declined [10].