Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade in a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,800, while the PP main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with support at 6,500. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in a range [9]. - PP faces considerable upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [50]. Summary by Directory Plastic Weekly Market Review - On November 14, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,853 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%. The average price of LDPE was 9,116.67 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%; the average price of HDPE was 7,532.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23%; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,292.35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%. The LLDPE South China basis was 439.35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.71%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+17) [8][11]. Key Data Tracking - Month - spread: On November 14, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+17), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (+5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 103 yuan/ton (- 22) [17]. - Spot Price: Detailed spot prices of different regions and varieties of HDPE, LDPE, and LLDPE are provided, along with their price changes [18][19]. - Cost: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.81 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at 64.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.54 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (+0) [21]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 236 yuan/ton from the previous week [26]. - Supply: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.97%. The maintenance loss this week was 8.89 tons, a decrease of 0.40 tons from the previous week [30]. - 2025 Production Plan: Multiple companies have put into production or are planned to put into production PE devices in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 [33]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many enterprises' PE devices are in maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [34]. - Demand: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 49.96%, unchanged from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.41%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous weekend, and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, unchanged from the previous weekend [36]. - Downstream Production Ratio: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 34%, with a difference of 1.3% from the annual average level. The data of low - pressure pipes differ significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 13.5%, with a difference of 3.2% from the annual average level [41]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 50.01 tons, a decrease of 0.95 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.86% [43]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,067 lots, a decrease of 602 lots from the previous week [47]. PP Weekly Market Review - On November 14, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,474 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 0.15% [51]. Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: The prices and price changes of various PP - related products and other plastics are provided [53][55]. - Basis: On November 14, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,486.67 yuan/ton (- 220). The PP basis was 13 yuan/ton (- 230), and the basis narrowed. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 101 yuan/ton (+9), and the month - spread widened [57]. - Month - spread: On November 14, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 101 yuan/ton (+9), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton (+3), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 139 yuan/ton (- 12) [63]. - Cost: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.81 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at 64.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.54 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (+0) [68]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 585.28 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 531.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126.73 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - Supply: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 79.63%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 82.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.22%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 7.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [78]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many enterprises' PP production lines are in maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [81]. - Demand: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 53%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points. The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.24% (- 0.22%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.60% (+0.15%), the operating rate of injection molding was 59.21% (+0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 37.67% (+0.37%) [83]. - Import and Export Profit: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 282.27 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65.42 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 21.39 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.07 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [89]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 62.00 tons (+3.35%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 7.26% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.94% week - on - week; the port inventory increased by 3.56% week - on - week [92]. - Inventory of Downstream Enterprises: This week, the finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1,001.19 tons, a decrease of 4.68% week - on - week, and the raw material inventory of BOPP was 9.60 days, an increase of 3.11% week - on - week [100]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,642 lots, an increase of 13 lots from the previous week [105].
长江期货聚烯烃周报-20251117
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-17 07:20